US Intelligence: Putin May Clash With NATO

Experts warn of the risk of expanding war in Europe.

Putin, according to an assessment by U.S. intelligence, believes his army continues to seize territory in Ukraine, so he sees no reason to stop the war. The annual report of the US intelligence services notes that Moscow still expects to achieve victory on the battlefield and impose peace on its own terms. At the same time, further development of the conflict could lead to its expansion - up to direct confrontation with NATO and a threat to the United States itself.

Although last year the pace of advancement of the Russian army was the lowest in the entire war and even in more than a century, according to the Washington-based Center for Strategy and International Studies, Russia maintains a military advantage. As long as it manages to hold and occupy Ukrainian territory, Moscow has little incentive to stop fighting.

The report emphasizes the risk of a so-called "escalation spiral," in which a conflict in Ukraine or a new crisis could lead to a direct confrontation with the United States, including the possible use of nuclear weapons. The intelligence agency considers this to be the most serious threat posed by Russia.

Additional danger is posed by Moscow's regular declarations of readiness to use nuclear weapons, as well as the use of medium-range dual-capable ballistic missiles. This increases the likelihood that a regional conflict will escalate into a global conflict.

Experts also warn of the risk of expanding the war in Europe. Continued fighting increases the likelihood of both accidental and deliberate escalation to a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.

The diversions against the US and its allies in Europe aimed at undermining support for Ukraine are cited. In particular, an incident on a Polish railroad in November 2025 is mentioned. Such actions on critical infrastructure could lead to casualties, economic damage and disruptions in arms supplies.

One of the factors strengthening Moscow's position is cited as support from China. Supplies of technology and dual-use products allow Russia to continue arms production. However, at the same time the dependence of the Russian economy on China is increasing, and problems are growing - budget deficit and insufficient investment in the civilian sector, which may lead to long-term stagnation.

Russia's economic lag is especially noticeable in the space sector, where China has already surpassed it as the main competitor of the United States. At the same time, Moscow continues to invest in military space development.

According to the report, Russia is developing a satellite capable of using nuclear weapons against other spacecraft. Such a deployment of anti-satellite nuclear weapons would violate international obligations, including the Outer Space Treaty, and would pose a threat to global security and satellite infrastructure.

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