The Economist: Israel Wanted To Start A War In Iran Over The Summer

The scenario was revised shortly before the actual fighting began.

The Israeli military and political leadership initially did not plan to enter an open phase of conflict with Iran in March 2026. The main deterrent was the state of the arsenals: the command needed several months to bring the stockpile of interceptor missiles and other critical munitions up to the necessary level.

According to The Economist, relying on senior Israeli sources, the optimal time to launch the operation was thought to be the summer of 2026.

Establishing a full-scale campaign ahead of schedule put Israel's missile defense system under extreme strain. The initial calculation was that by June-July, the logistics chains would allow the warehouses to be fully stocked, ensuring resistance to prolonged and intense shelling.

But reality dictated different conditions. The intensity of Iranian strikes has been so high that the expenditure of interceptors is putting serious pressure on the defense infrastructure.

Although plans for strikes on Iranian military facilities have been developed and refined with U.S. partners over time, the date of their activation has remained fluid. The original summer scenario was revised just shortly before the actual hostilities began.

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