Ukraine's SVR: A Banking Crisis Has Broken Out In Russia

Key attributes are recorded.

In 2025, Russia's banking system has lost key signs of stability, despite the regulator's soothing rhetoric. Thus, the banking crisis has already arrived.

The site of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reports that.

According to the intelligence service, last year the net profit of banks fell by 8% compared to 2024 and amounted to 45 billion dollars, while the return on equity fell to 18%.

"The deterioration in financial results came amid a sharp rise in provisioning charges and higher borrowing costs driven by tight monetary policy. These indicators indicate not a cyclical slowdown, but the beginning of a deeper dysfunction of the sector," the report says.

At the same time, the quality of the loan portfolio is deteriorating. In particular, the share of problem loans has reached 11%, and 12% for unsecured loans. This level of defaults contradicts official assurances of stability and testifies to the systemic nature of the problems, which can no longer be explained by individual segments or temporary shocks.

Moreover, even analysts of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, which is close to the Kremlin, have recognized the beginning of a systemic banking crisis.

They have come to the conclusion that the current supposed stability is based not on fundamental recovery, but on the dominance of state-owned banks, the masses of the state-owned banks, and the lack of the state-owned banks. Such a structure, in turn, only postpones the crisis, while increasing the risks of a rapid and large-scale outflow of deposits in the event of an aggravation of the situation.

The intelligence explained that the claimed stability of the Russian banking system is artificial. In particular, the rf central bank has actually switched to a regime of manual risk management, allowing toxic loans to be masked through formal restructurings.

"Under these conditions, official data only mask the real scale of losses. The banking sector will inevitably require additional government support, which will increase fiscal and macroeconomic pressure on the Russian economy and consolidate the crisis as a long-term factor," the SVRU explained.

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