Global Smartphone Shipments To Shrink 13% Over 2026

The average price of a smartphone will increase.

Global smartphone shipments could decline by nearly 13% by the end of 2026, according to a report by International Data Corporation (IDC). The average price of a smartphone will increase by 14% to reach $523. The reason for the increase will be the shortage of memory chips in the market.

Global smartphone shipments in 2026 will decline 12.9% year-on-year to about 1.1 billion units. As an example, shipments reached 1.26 billion units in 2025. "What we are seeing is not a temporary contraction, but a tsunami-like shock originating in the memory supply chain, with ripple effects spreading throughout the consumer electronics industry," said IDC spokesperson Francisco Jeronimo.

Analysts at Counterpoint Research also revised the outlook sharply downward. The company expects a 12% decline in global smartphone shipments, the steepest in history. Tarun Pathak, Counterpoint's research director, explained that memory manufacturers are prioritizing shipments to hyperscalers (large data center operators), and smartphone makers are forced to "stand in line."

The main factor behind the shortage has been the rapid growth of investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Technology giants are accelerating the creation of AI infrastructure by buying up memory chips, which directly pushes prices up. Therefore, rising production costs will inevitably lead to higher retail prices. IDC predicts that the average price of a smartphone in 2026 will increase by 14% to $523.

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