"Lukashenko Violated The Agreements"

A political scientist told why Ukraine had taken up with the Belarusian dictator.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky gave a great interview to the Belarusian publication Zerkalo, where he repeated several times about the threat of involving Belarusians in a war. What are these statements based on? Is there such a threat today?

That's what Charter97.org talked to the well-known Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Center for Applied Political Research "Penta" Vladimir Fesenko:

- Based on the context of the interview, its content, we are not talking about preparations for an invasion from the territory of Belarus into Ukraine, not about the fact that Belarusian troops will participate in this invasion. Zelensky made it clear that the interaction between Lukashenko's regime and Putin's regime in assisting in strikes on the territory of Ukraine has intensified in recent months. Among other things, the repeaters mentioned by Zelensky are helping to launch air strikes against targets in Western Ukraine in the first place, as well as the Kiev and Zhitomir regions.

Lukashenko himself proclaims the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and the notorious "Oreshnik" on the territory of Belarus. But this is already a threat not only to Ukraine, but also to Europe, which Zelensky also emphasizes.

Zelensky also mentioned the preparation of new joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus, and this is always a potential risk. As we already know, Russian troops stayed in Belarus and then attacked Ukraine in 2022, just 4 years ago, after another joint exercise. Exercise "West", which is also regularly held on the territory of Belarus, is always a risk. It is a risk both for us and for European countries, because the concentration of Russian troops on the territory of Belarus is a potential danger that after some time these troops can be used for an attack.

- Zelensky said he would talk to the Americans about Lukashenko's complicity in the war and the legal responsibility of the regime. What can such steps lead to?"

- It is worth noting that Zelensky has sharply actualized the Belarusian topic and recently imposed sanctions against Lukashenko. I think this is largely due to the fact that the Donald Trump administration has sharply softened its policy towards Lukashenko's regime. Such "liberalization" has begun. I believe that such a peculiar last straw in this "liberalization" is the invitation of Lukashenko to participate in the "Peace Council".

I think that when Zelensky said that he would raise this issue with the Americans, what is meant is that in fact we do not perceive the participation of Belarus in the "Peace Council", since it is essentially an accomplice in the war against Ukraine. Another thing, I don't really believe that this will work on Trump. Trump has his own logic. Mind you, Russia was invited to participate in the "Peace Council" as well. Russia is even more responsible for the war against Ukraine. So, unfortunately, Trump has a different logic. He does not divide countries into aggressive and peace-loving. What matters to him is: pay a billion or show loyalty to me. Maintain good relations with Trump, sing dithyrambs. Then everything will be fine.

Nevertheless, the Ukrainian side in this case just shows that it will present information to the Americans that, unfortunately, the position of Belarus and Lukashenko's regime is far from peace-loving. What Lukashenko is doing in Belarus now is not promoting peace, but on the contrary, the risks of Belarus being drawn into a war against Ukraine are growing.

- Every Ukrainian president, even pro-European Yushchenko and Poroshenko, built relations with the Belarusian dictator, who has already been accused of physical elimination of his opponents. Do you think that this time Kiev's relations with Lukashenko are finally crossed?

- We never say never. Everything depends on specific circumstances. But I think that in the case of Lukashenko, Zelensky did not have any change of policy towards him. There were no illusions of Lukashenko's peacefulness or belief that he would change the political regime in Belarus. There were never any such illusions. Rather, there was a tactic.

From the end of 2022 and 2023-2024, there was a tactic to reduce the tension in relations with Lukashenko's regime. Through interaction at the level of special services, military, to prevent Belarus from being drawn into a war against Ukraine. Because the Kremlin had such plans: to drag Lukashenko's regime directly into the war against Ukraine, so that not only Russia would be involved in the war.

Lukashenko, I think, didn't really want to go to war himself, because he realized the huge risks for himself in case of participation in such a war. The Ukrainian side used it. Therefore, there was rather tactical interaction on both sides.

Now Lukashenko has again made a sharp turn towards Moscow. The degree of interaction with the Kremlin in assisting in strikes against Ukraine has become intolerable. Apparently, Kiev has come to the conclusion that Lukashenko may have violated some agreements that were made earlier. About some kind of conditional neutrality of Belarus, that it would not assist Russia in strikes on Ukraine. But, apparently, Lukashenko has now violated these obligations. As a result, Ukraine's position has changed, but there are no illusions against Lukashenko. Let me remind you that Ukraine did not recognize the results of the 2020 "elections" in Belarus, and this position will remain unchanged.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]