Ukrainian Officer: This Is A Critical Threshold For The Russian Army

The AFU conducts successful counterattacks.

Ukraine's armed forces have turned to active counter-offensives in the south of the country, foiling plans by Russian troops. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky announced the liberation of about 400 square kilometers of territory.

What is happening on Ukraine's fronts now? On which directions the AFU have real successes?

About this Charter97.org talked to military expert, Major of reserve of the National Guard of Ukraine Alexei Getman:

- In the southern direction, the border of Dnepropetrovsk region - the AFU conduct counterattacks. This cannot be called a counterattack, because a counterattack differs from a counteroffensive in that it is carried out without attracting any additional forces, without bringing up the rear.

The forces and means that are leading the defense can carry out counterattacks at relatively small distances, which are measured in kilometers, not tens of kilometers, without attracting any additional forces and means. This is an element of active defense, because in addition to positional defense (that is, when we hold certain lines), there is maneuver defense, mobile defense, and various types of active defense. They are prescribed in military textbooks and combat manuals, and we use them, taking into account the forces and means that we have and the forces and means that the enemy has.

- The invaders are suffering enormous losses, and the replenishment does not have time to replenish them. Is the Russian army able to continue offensive actions under such conditions?

- So far it is able, unfortunately, because the total number of the Russian army is not decreasing. As it was about 710,000 people, so it remains. The occupiers are suffering losses at about the same level, at which they are able to attract replenishment by various means. The new Minister of Defense of Ukraine Mikhail Fedorov is focused on the fact that the AFU needs to increase Russian losses to 50 thousand people a month - then they will form a negative balance at the level of 15-20 thousand. Conditionally, they will lose about 50 thousand, and attract about 30 thousand, the final minus - 20 thousand. This means that by the summer the number of Russian occupiers can be reduced to about 600 thousand.

Why is this important? Because the figure of 50 thousand is not taken "from the ceiling" and not because it is simply round. At the beginning of 2025, the number of Russian troops in Ukraine was about 600,000. Then, as their losses fell below their ability to replenish them, they began to increase - by 5-10 thousand in different months. As a result, the number grew to 705-710 thousand, and since the summer of last year it has remained practically unchanged.

This allowed the Russians to increase the grouping by more than 100 thousand people and open another active section of the front - the Gulyaypol direction. Thus, now they have two active directions: Pokrovsko-Mirnogradskoye and Gulyaipolskoye, where a significant amount of manpower and equipment is concentrated. If the AFU manages to raise the enemy's losses to the level of 50,000, then by summer - just by the time the Russians themselves announce another "powerful" offensive operation - their numbers will again drop to about 600,000.

This means that they will no longer be able to conduct active, massive combat operations in the two directions - they simply will not have enough numbers. The Russian army uses tactics based on a large number of manpower, and 600 thousand people will not give them the opportunity to simultaneously attack in two directions.

That is why the goal is 50 thousand. How do we achieve it? Obviously, not through the fact that the AFU will simply become more accurate in shooting - on the battlefield, in the gray zone, we are already effective enough: this is small arms fire, artillery, and drones. Consequently, it is necessary to increase strikes on the second and third lines of the Russian forces - where they conduct tactical rotation and where the accumulation of forces takes place. Before entering the front line, they are concentrated in certain places, not scattered in the field. These are the places where strikes should be carried out. Then it is likely that the AFU will be able to reach the level of 50 thousand losses of the enemy. Further - minus, minus, minus, minus, as they themselves say, negative growth. This is the critical threshold of the Russian army. The number of troops will again drop to at least 600,000 by the summer, and then they will be able to attack in only one direction. This, in turn, will make it much easier for us to hold our defenses.

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