Belarus Has Started Sending Summonses To Reservists: What Is The Regime Up To?

There is a scenario in which Belarusian troops will be sent to Ukraine.

A number of cities in the west of Belarus started sending out summonses to men for military training. This is especially active in Hrodna Region, located near the border with Lithuania and Poland. According to the reports of local residents in social networks, men are sent to the training camp for a month and a half or two months, with little time to solve domestic issues.

Belarusian "authorities" have previously held such events, explaining them as a response to the exercises held in the North Atlantic Alliance countries. At the same time, Ukraine is forced to keep significant forces on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, despite the fact that this section of the front remains relatively calm. At the same time, there are cases of Russian sabotage groups, which are trained on the territory of Belarus, after which they commit sabotage, including land mines and attempts to attack Ukrainian border guards.

It is noted that when Russian troops face difficulties on the frontline and deplete their offensive potential, the activation of military activity on the territory of Belarus occurs synchronously. In some cases, this occurs directly near the border with Ukraine, forcing the Ukrainian side to hold additional forces there and preventing it from transferring reserves to other directions. Even the units withdrawn for recovery are forced to remain in the area to maintain the necessary contingent strength.

Thereby, the potential threat of an invasion by Belarus remains. Belarus is seen as an accomplice in the aggression against Ukraine, as it has provided its territory for the actions of Russian troops. At the same time, according to estimates, at the moment there are no signs that the Belarusian army is preparing for a full-fledged entry into the war.

It is noted that individual provocations or violations of airspace remain possible. In particular, there were previously recorded cases when drones from the territory of Belarus approached the borders of neighboring countries. However, at present, there are no direct risks of a full-scale military invasion by Belarus.

Activity, according to social networks, is mainly concentrated in the northern regions of the country, closer to the borders of Poland and Lithuania. At the same time, no direct threat to European countries has not yet been recorded. Such actions may be of a demonstrative nature and aimed at testing the reaction of neighboring states.

The Belarusian side explains what is happening by the need to respond to NATO exercises. At the same time, the movement and deployment of troops may be carried out under the formal pretext of "response to NATO exercises."

It is estimated that the likelihood of involvement of Belarusian troops in the war in the future will depend on the situation at the front. Such a scenario is possible if the Russian troops achieve significant operational and tactical successes and are able to change the balance of forces. At present, amid the depletion of Russia's offensive potential, Belarus is probably not interested in direct participation in a war without clear prospects of military success.

Dmitry Zhmaylo, co-founder and executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, especially for "Glavreda".

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