"This Moment For Putin Is Coming Soon."
20- 21.02.2026, 21:15
- 23,990
The head of the Kremlin fears him the most.
The Russian army's losses at the front are growing at an insane rate. It has already gotten to the point that the Kremlin does not have time to replenish the army. For the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Vladimir Putin is losing more soldiers than he is mobilizing.
Moscow is forced to more actively recruit foreign citizens into the army. For Vladimir Putin, however, this situation poses serious challenges. Specially for "24 Kanal" experts assessed the situation with replenishment in the army of the occupants, and also explained what restrains the dictator from general mobilization and what big challenge he faces.
What big challenge faces Putin?
Because of continuous assaults and effective actions of Ukrainian defenders, the Russian army suffers significant losses on the battlefield. Under such conditions, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to rebuild its personnel. U.S. Army veteran Paul Lewandowski noted that the scale of Russia's losses is staggering. According to him, one in two hundred Russian men has died in the war against Ukraine.
Lewandowski emphasized that Russia's casualty rate is extremely high because of the intense fighting. He is surprised that despite this Russians continue to volunteer to go to the front, even when they have acquaintances or relatives who have not returned from the war.
"Some of the recruits are foreigners who are tricked or coerced into going to war. At the same time, there are many Russians themselves who are under the strong influence of propaganda," the U.S. Army veteran said.
In his opinion, sooner or later Russia will run out of people who do not realize the real deadly threat of war. Then Putin will have to look for other options: reduce the scale of operations, recruit foreigners more actively, or declare a broad mobilization. However, the latter scenario could have serious political consequences for him.
Lewandowski also pointed out that the governments of some African countries with low living standards are already trying to limit Russia's ability to recruit their citizens for war. The reason is Russia's use of dubious and fraudulent recruitment methods.
What is a dictator very afraid of?"
Retired U.S. Army General David Petraeus expressed his belief that Russia's ability to endlessly replenish its losses is not unlimited. Sooner or later, he said, there will come a point when Russian families will refuse to send their sons to the front - regardless of financial incentives.
The total losses of the Russian army in the war exceeded 1.2 million men. In January alone, Russia lost 9,000 more military personnel than it was able to compensate with new mobilized or contract soldiers.
"The Russian authorities are effectively 'buying' the military by offering substantial lump-sum payments, the so-called lifts. However, when families receive not the promised benefits but the bodies of the dead, patience may run out," Petraeus added.
He believes that at some point this could turn against the current regime. One of the key problems for the Kremlin is that Vladimir Putin is waging a war that he cannot yet win, but at the same time he has not demonstrated a willingness to end it.
The general also noted that powerful nationalist sentiments have been stirred up in Russia, and stopping the war without achieving at least part of the declared goals could be perceived by part of society as a betrayal of the memory of those who died.
If Russia loses its ability to compensate for losses on the front, its capacity to wage war will gradually deplete, David Petraeus is convinced. Without constant replenishment of personnel, the aggressor's resources will inevitably dwindle.
"Ukraine's important achievement in the field of defense production. According to him, Ukraine plans to double its drone manufacturing in 2026. 'This is especially impressive considering that last year about 3.5 million drones were produced,' the retired US Army general said.
The production volume is expected to increase to 7 million drones in 2026. Such a number allows drones to be actively used on a daily basis, including for hitting targets on Russian territory.
Petraeus believes that the development of the Ukrainian defense sector will be of strategic importance not only during the war, but also after its completion. It is about forming new high-tech industries, stimulating the economy and strengthening Ukraine's position in innovative production.
What is holding Russia back from general mobilization?
In the opinion of political scientist Igor Reiterovich, mobilization in Russia is quite possible. It is actively discussed, but there is bad news for Putin here: all the various polls show that Russians categorically do not perceive mobilization in the classical sense.
"They have already spoiled the population with million-dollar contracts. Those who will potentially be raked into the army will have a question, why should I die in the war for 20 thousand rubles, when my neighbor went for 2 million. Russians categorically do not accept this, and Putin is very afraid of it," Reiterovich explained.
According to him, if a general mobilization is announced in Russia, the mobilized will not be paid as much as they are paid to contractors now. They will not be allowed to sign contracts and will be paid 20,000 rubles.
The Kremlin has driven itself into this trap, because the topic of money and alleged "voluntary joining the army" has been so hyped that it is impossible to find a way out of this situation at all.
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