Forbes: Putin's Main Myth Is Falling Apart

Russia is getting weaker.

Wars are fought not only on battlefields, but also in perceptions and narratives that influence political will and economic expectations. Retired U.S. Air Force general and air force expert Dave Deptula writes about this for Forbes.

"Putin understands this. His strategy now depends less on decisive success on the battlefield and more on convincing the world, particularly the United States, that a Russian victory is inevitable; that further support for Ukraine is futile; and that pragmatic Americans would be wiser to prepare for a beneficial normalization than a prolonged confrontation," he said.

In particular, the European Union's foreign policy chief Kaya Kallas warned that "the greatest threat Russia now poses is that it gains more at the negotiating table than it has achieved on the battlefield."

"The seeming inevitability of a Russian victory is not a fact. It is only a story. And if you compare it to the reality on the battlefield, that story falls apart. At the operational level, Ukraine has held off Russian ground forces on a frontline of about 1,000 kilometers. It has neutralized Russia's effective use of the Black Sea and stripped it of its air advantage over Ukrainian-controlled territory - an extraordinary defeat for what was considered a modern air force," Deptula recalled.

According to the expert, at the tactical level Ukraine has a favorable loss ratio, which ranges from 2.5:1 to 7:1, and in some battles this ratio is even higher.

"Even when Russian troops advance a few kilometers, they do so with huge losses. The casualty figures underscore two basic realities: first, Russia is willing to pay an extraordinary price in human lives for minor territorial gains; second, time plays in Moscow's favor only if Ukraine's defenses erode faster than Russia's human resources and industrial base," the retired U.S. Air Force general explained.

Deptula stressed that it is not just about breakthroughs, but also about endurance, industrial capacity, and political will. In particular, Russia promises inevitability, but on the front there is "attrition without momentum, loss without advantage, and violence without solution."

At the same time, the expert said, Ukraine's will is unquestionable, and it is the West's resolve that is the uncertain variable.

What the Russian president is fighting for

"Of course, Putin is fighting for more than just territory. He is fighting for his political survival. By presenting the invasion as existential for Russia, he has made it existential for himself. Putin has little political space to change course without redefining the outcome as a success. The longer the war lasts, the more the legitimacy of his regime is questioned. This dynamic helps explain Russia's willingness to suffer extraordinary losses. Ending the war without tangible gains risks exposing the enormous human and economic costs already incurred," the general said.

That is why, as Deptula noted, the world now sees not the profile of an inevitable victor, but a regime that is wasting lives to buy time, hoping that Western fatigue or economic temptations will provide what Putin cannot achieve on the battlefield.

"Some argue that Putin's greatest advantage lies in the dominance of the narrative - that by imposing a story of inevitability, Russia seeks to shape negotiations independently of reality on the battlefield. Narrative matters. But a narrative without power is propaganda," the author of the piece emphasized.

The expert added that the Russian dictator is betting that the Russian Federation will be able to withstand costs longer than the West, but such an assumption is a fallacy if the West decides to prove it.

Russia is getting weaker

"Russia's vulnerability is real. Its human resource potential is depleted. Its economy is increasingly militarized and fragile. Sanctions have restricted access to technology and capital. And its strategy depends on a safe haven - the belief that its homeland and the infrastructure that supports war remain largely immune from significant consequences. Until the United States and European allies provide Ukraine with the means to actually challenge this safe haven, Moscow can maintain the illusion of endurance," the general said.

Deptula said how the war in Ukraine ends will affect world events far beyond Europe. If Russia's aggression is rewarded with a final normalization of relations and a beneficial resumption of cooperation, the lesson for China will be unambiguous: just tolerate sanctions, absorb losses, manipulate narratives, and the world will eventually adjust to your goals.

"If aggression is met with staunch resistance, strategic defeat, and fails to achieve its goals, it will strengthen deterrence against future aggression. Militarily, Ukraine has already disproved the myth of Russia's inevitable victory. The question remains whether the United States and its allies will allow economic temptations and narrative pressures to replace the strategic clarity and values that all free people hold dear," the expert noted.

The author of the publication summarized that wars are fought on the battlefield, but they are also fought in narratives.

"Russia is selling a narrative of inevitable victory and future profits. The facts tell a different story - of tension, exhaustion and vulnerability. History will remember which version we choose to believe - and act according to it," he emphasized.

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