The Dollar Is Changing Trajectory, But There Is A Nuance
5- 16.02.2026, 12:40
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Forecast for the week.
Once again, the U.S. dollar exchange rate in the Belarusian currency market failed to reverse the current trend and return to growth. What exchange rates to expect in mid-February, says financial analyst Mikhail Grachev in the traditional forecast for myfin.by.
Dollar is going down again
After last week, the dollar exchange rate on the BCSE fell by -0.23% and stopped at USD/BYN 2.8618. By the beginning of the current year, the decline in the exchange rate is still -1.41%. A very important detail - the dollar trading volume continues to grow and just last week "bucks" were terminated for the amount of 92.801 million dollars. With a simultaneous decline in the dollar exchange rate, it indicates that certain market participants are actively getting rid of the U.S. currency.
It would not be surprising if by the end of February we see another increase in the volume of foreign currency in the international reserve assets of the National Bank. Especially against the background of the fact that, as we remember, this year Belarus will have to make maximum payments within the framework of servicing the state debt.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble has somehow illogically declined against this background. At the end of trading on the BCSE, the ruble went down by -0.32%. The change in the rate to the beginning of the year is now only +0.38%. Last week's closing rate of RUB/BYN 3.7199 per 100 Russian rubles. The volume of ruble torrents for the week amounted to RUB 13,011.770 million, which corresponds to the average values.
On the Russian domestic market, the dollar exchange rate also rolled back to the lower boundary of the price corridor and by the close of the market on Friday, February 13, the dollar stopped at USD/RUB 76.65. The ruble is still supported by the Bank of Russia in the form of daily sales of foreign currency in the amount of 17.4 billion rubles.
Rate reduction in Russia
In addition, the near-term outlook will definitely be affected by the Central Bank's decision on February 13 to lower the key rate. At Friday's meeting of the Board of Directors it was decided to lower the rate by 0.50 p.p. to 15.50%. In the subsequent commentary of the Central Bank head Mrs. Nabiullina it was pointed out that the growth of inflation in January was quite expected due to the increase in the VAT rate. But, according to the regulator, this surge is of short-term nature and will not be transferred to the warming up of the economy. Thus, the Central Bank considered it possible to lower the key rate, but real deposit rates still remain in a comfortably attractive zone.
The US labor market data published last week somewhat disappointed the financial market, which led to a slight strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies. The EUR/USD pair also moved away from the high and by the close of the week stopped near EUR/USD 1.1865.
Gold on the world markets traded in a relatively narrow range of 4900 - 5100 USD/Oz all week, being in a classic sideways flat. This trend is likely to continue until the end of February, as from Monday, February 16, a part of the Asian market in the form of China, Hong Kong and Singapore goes on New Year (according to the Eastern calendar) vacations. Since these segments of the world gold market are the most capacious, a significant change in the price of gold and precious metals at this time is unlikely.
Weekly Forecast
Thus, the Belarusian currency market is likely to remain stable in the near future, as there are no significant reasons to change the current situation. The dollar exchange rate remains close to the current values with the probability of its decline to the level of USD/BYN 2.850. The Russian ruble exchange rate is also near the current quotations RUB/BYN 3.720 per 100 Russian rubles. Everything is calm in the market.
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