Borislav Bereza: Lukashenko's Regime Will Collapse By The Domino Principle

The WSU may hit the "wallets" of the dictator.

The Forbes published an article, where it is noted that the actions of the Lukashenko regime on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border have caused the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be put on high alert, and the level of military tension in the northern direction continues to grow.

How real are the military threats from the Lukashenko regime in the near future and what scenarios should Ukraine be afraid of?

This is the question Charter97.org asked Ukrainian politician and former Verkhovna Rada deputy Boryslav Bereza:

- Let's start with the fact that the Lukashenko regime can't carry any real, actual military threat, but it can provide its territory as a springboard for Russian troops to attack Ukraine. This is the only, but at the same time the most important danger for Ukraine. As of today, the number of Russian troops that are on the territory of Belarus does not pose a threat. Also, Ukrainian intelligence monitoring shows that the idea of participating in a war against Ukraine is now extremely unpopular among Belarusians.

The more so that the old narrative "as long as there is no war" is actively used by Lukashenko to strengthen his power and support. As soon as coffins start arriving in the houses of Belarusians, not only Lukashenko's power, but also the whole support and the whole vertical will fall down. So he understands it well.

But, on the other hand, just the same, he may sooner or later make his territory available for a second attack, as it was in 2022, if someone has forgotten. He could be motivated by anything from his own safety to money. Selling Belarusians and the future of Belarus for money will not be any problem for Lukashenko.

His personal interests, as well as the interests of his family, are above everything else for him. This is the only real danger that exists. Everything else is an imitation of violent activity, which the dictator is now demonstrating to support his bellicose rhetoric. In fact, we all know that Lukashenko's actions resemble those of an impotent man: he can show, but he cannot do anything.

- What actions of the AFU can minimize the threat of a repeated attack of Russian troops from the territory of Belarus? What should be Ukraine's response in case such a threat becomes real again?

- As of today, Ukrainian troops are concentrated there quite seriously, and all the relevant lanes are mined. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that there is constant monitoring of the situation.

Lukashenko knows that he can be motivated not only by receiving money, but also by inflicting direct damage. For example, a strike on the Mozyr oil refinery - and this is Lukashenko's personal money, personal purse - can seriously demotivate him.

That is why Ukraine warned: if Belarus is used as a springboard for an attack on Ukraine, all the enterprises that belong to Lukashenko's orbit and his financial purses will be struck. Thus, even having received quite a lot of money from the Kremlin, he will lose even more on the territory of Belarus.

- Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga said that the main threat is Lukashenko's regime, not the Belarusian society. What specific measures of pressure on the regime can and should Kiev apply?

- Real measures are raising the issue of Lukashenko at the level of the International Criminal Court, imposing additional sanctions and tightening the entry regimes on the EU border with Belarus. In addition, it is necessary to be quite actively engaged in supporting the real Belarusian opposition and interaction with those people who are ready to promote the idea that Lukashenko is an enemy today, and the Belarusians are not. Here, in principle, everything is quite simple.

The other problem is that Belarus is already under a large number of sanctions, and Lukashenko is saved thanks to the alliance with the Russian Federation. By sucking money and resources from Russia, he maintains his power. If the Russian regime falls, Lukashenko's regime will collapse in the same way - by the domino principle.

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