Russia's Economy Is Repeating The Scenario Of The Late USSR
1- 10.02.2026, 13:56
- 5,004
Ukrainian intelligence has learned the details.
The Russian economy is entering the phase of the deepest crisis in the last 20 years, which may force the Kremlin to reconsider the economic policy formed back in the early 2000s.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reports.
A severe slowdown in industrial growth
According to the intelligence service, according to the results of 2025, a significant slowdown in industrial development has been recorded: if in 2023-2024 industrial production grew by 4-6%, then in the eleven months of 2025 the growth amounted to only 0.8%. The drop in dynamics in the manufacturing industry is especially noticeable.
An additional signal of problems was the reduction in freight traffic of Russian railroads to the minimum for the last 16 years, which indicates both difficulties with exports and the cooling of the domestic market.
Record budget deficit
The financial situation of the private sector is also deteriorating, and the budget situation remains unstable. In 2025, Russia's federal budget deficit rose to 5.65 trillion rubles, exceeding even that of the pandemic year 2020.
Despite a slight slowdown in spending growth, government spending remains at record levels, keeping inflation high and forcing the authorities to increase the tax burden.
The risk of prolonged economic turbulence
According to analysts, the current situation is increasingly being compared to the delayed crisis of the late Soviet Union, when economic problems were long masked by debt. Although the scale of the current challenges is not yet comparable to the crisis of the 1990s, Russia is likely to face a long period of economic instability.
Problems in the Russian economy
The Russian economy ended 2025 with a sharp deterioration of indicators: oil prices have fallen to a five-year low, and the level of development of the space industry will actually roll back to the indicators of the early 1960s.
At the same time, the financial and institutional system of the Russian Federation is increasingly moving into the mode of so-called managed chaos: banks are hiding their ownership structure, civil servants are exempted from filing declarations, and businesses are operating under constant pressure and instability.
In addition, in 2026-2027, Russian airlines plan to return to service mothballed Soviet and foreign-made aircraft, most of which are over 30 years old. The reason for such a step was sanctions, reduction of the air fleet and lack of opportunities for its renewal.
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