The Kremlin Has Fallen Into Its Own Trap

Ritual dances have reached a dead end.

It’s not just the negotiations on ending the Russian Federation’s war in Ukraine that have reached an impasse.

All international diplomacy is at an impasse. No agreements between anyone in the world are currently POSSIBLE. Not on a ceasefire, not on disarmament, not on nuclear arsenals, not on borders, not on the notorious “security architecture,” and not on strategic “deals.” NOTHING. Any system of international law is built on 1) mutual trust and 2) the certainty that if I abide by the agreements, everyone else will as well.

When someone disrupts the system through aggression, it breaks down from top to bottom for everyone—including the one who broke it—and the house of cards collapses, giving way to a world in which no one trusts anyone and all treaties are not worth the paper they’re written on. No guarantees are possible. There is no system of trust.

All the summits and high-level meetings, and all the “Yalta-shalta”—are nothing more than a photo op.

That’s why they’re going to China.

Not a single document will be signed there, and even if one is, no one will comply with it. Just ritual dances—nothing more. It seems to me that Putin has begun to realize that he has driven himself into a situation where EVERYONE has become unwilling to compromise. And this is very dangerous even for him personally, especially given his paranoia, which is now entirely justified: now he could be “betrayed” for real, not just in his parallel reality of propaganda rhetoric. By anyone. At any time. Regardless of any “agreements.” Deception and blatant lies have become the norm in international relations. If Putin violates the ceasefire agreements, it will come back to haunt him. What’s to stop him from breaking any agreement whatsoever? They’ll sign an agreement to withdraw all troops from Europe, but not a single soldier will be withdrawn: they’ll find reasons to renege on it. Or they’ll say: What agreements? There were no agreements—you just imagined them.

Trust has died and is decomposing on the desolate shore of world diplomacy, like a beached whale. The evacuation from “Oleshky” is the only instance where even a minimal capacity for compromise was demonstrated.

Everything is at an impasse. There are no Kissingers, only Dmitriyevs, Vitkovs, Kushners, Maria Zakharovs, and other blatantly unprofessional, ignorant rabble with the mentality of lackeys or shifty used-car salesmen.

The Kremlin has fallen into its own trap.

But Ukraine, too, cannot rely on any paper guarantees. Only actions. Only strengthening the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That is the only guarantee so far.

Karina Kokrell-Ferre, “Facebook”

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