"A Difficult Collision Is Looming For Lukashenko"

The dictator can be "stretched on a twine".

So far, although China holds a firm position of the second trade partner of Belarus after Russia, but in the nine-billion-dollar trade turnover ($8.94 billion in January-November 2025 with an increase of 18% compared to the same period of 2024) the volume of exports is only about $1.7 billion, which is 8.4% below the level of 2024 in monetary terms.

Lukashenko returns to the topic of China with varying frequency, reminding that for Belarus China is both a reliable ally on all issues and a strategic partner.

This time he said that "China is serious and for a long time" and that we will always cooperate with it.

Political analyst of the news agency "Pozirk" Alexandr Klaskovsky is skeptical about such plans of the ruler. He explained his point of view to "Filin".

- Lukashenko has long had a cherished dream, and he has spoken about it several times and even admitted that he told Comrade Xi about it. China appears to him in the image of a "big locomotive".

And, they say, if you hitch a Belarusian carriage to this powerful locomotive, China will not even notice it. In other words, it was a hope to get a free hitch and thus break ahead," says Alexander Klaskovski. - This desire was especially strong during the periods of various "fights" with Moscow.

When all these "gas, oil, food wars" started, the eyes of the Belarusian authorities always turned to China in the hope of creating an alternative and counterbalance to Russia, and at the same time insurance against "friendly takeover", which Lukashenko resisted.

That is, he wanted China to become not only a market for exports, but also a geopolitical counterweight. However, we can state that these goals have not been achieved.

- What about the course of "building strategic relations with China of the highest level", where did the Belarusian-Chinese friendship with visiting parades go?

- In terms of declarations, everything is fine here. And Lukashenko was really invited last year to stand on their tribune during the parade.

But, as they say, friendship is friendship, and when the Chinese saw that Minsk was in a difficult situation because of sanctions, the prices for potash could be brought down.

It is clear that China will not make any claims regarding human rights violations.

But in terms of business relations, I did not find any mention of the trade balance at this last meeting. Snopkov (First Deputy Prime Minister - note) reported that Belarus has tripled its trade turnover with China and doubled its exports in 10 years. Everything seems to have increased, everything is good, but the balance is negative. That's why the officials cunningly kept silent about it.

China can really, on the one hand, invest money in the construction of swimming pools and stadiums. It builds them not only in Minsk, but also in Africa, and for the Chinese it is pennies.

But what is strategically important for them is the calculation to launch their tentacles into the territory and promote their interests. For example, they are interested in minerals in Africa.

What can Belarus be of interest to them? When Moscow began to refuse loans, they really began to offer their own, but these were "tied loans". In other words, take the money, but buy our equipment and use our labor force.

It turns out to be just like at Svetlogorsk CCP, where some of the Chinese equipment turned out to be of poor quality, and then harmful emissions were recorded, and local residents even protested.

As for technological partnership, China has long been ahead of Belarus in this respect. So far, we have only learned to put our stickers on their products.

We export food or raw materials to them. The same potash, the prices for which I have already mentioned. They are dictated by China.

Lukashenko had an illusion: since China is communist, they run their economy like he does, i.e. like a big collective farm. But there the economy is market economy. They are incompatible with our officials with Soviet brains.

Hence this imbalance in trade, which is unlikely to be solved at the current level of the Belarusian economy.

- If we talk about China's interests, it has always regarded Belarus as a logistical hub for access to the EU market.

- Here Lukashenko, one could say, missed a "gift of fate". After the routes through Ukraine fell off because of the war, there was a moment when Belarus could have taken over the entire turnover.

But Lukashenko managed to quarrel with all his neighbors. Last year, apparently, his Chinese comrades reprimanded him for the conflict with Poland, when Poles blocked all transit, including railroads.

They also reprimanded Warsaw, because of which, I think, it opened two crossings, but there were reasons for dissatisfaction with relations with Belarus.

Listen, even Russia is now considered by China as its vassal. And Lukashenko is, it turns out, a vassal of a vassal. And they really counted on Belarus as a logistics hub.

And in general, China has claims to world domination. That is why it is working in Africa and Latin America, they bought oil in Venezuela.

This is such an expansion with the aim that in the XXI century China will become the main world power. And if we talk about geopolitical counterbalance, if Putin thinks of incorporating Belarus, Xi will definitely not fit in and send his troopers to defend Drozdy.

- Lukashenko seems to think that nothing threatens our independence. At the same meeting, he suddenly declared, "I am sure that we will be independent and sovereign always."

- The Chinese don't care about Belarus' independence. For them, probably, if they imagine that Russia will reign here, it will be even easier than to separately attack Belarus.

That is, I would not count on China as a geopolitical counterweight to Russia.

But there is one more piquant moment. Lukashenko is now very proud of Trump's attention - from cufflinks to membership in this still unclear organization.

But one can remember how John Bolton, being Trump's national security adviser in his first cadence, came to Minsk and, having seen a large billboard of a Chinese brand, even then warned Lukashenko that it was dangerous to cooperate with China, that America did not like it. He later described it in his memoirs.

This and now Trump does not like it. And now he has a geopolitical struggle with China. Washington's super goal is to limit Chinese influence in the world. And Lukashenko may find himself back on the twine here.

They may hint to him to let China in less. Or maybe Trump will tell all members of his Council to stop cooperating with China, just like he did with Venezuela.

It smells like a potential conflict. In this regard, Lukashenko may face a difficult collision.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]