Natallia Radzina: Today A Dictator Can Be Arrested In His Own Bedroom

And his entire entourage will happily go along with the deal.

Why did Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky talk about Belarus?" How has the US takeover of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro affected Lukashenko? Who can turn in the Belarusian ruler? What is behind the statements of ex-political prisoner Maria Kolesnikova about dialog with the Lukashenko regime?

About this and not only we talked to the editor-in-chief of the site Charter97.org Natallia Radzina:

- The year began with bright events - the seizure of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro by the US military, large-scale protests in Iran. Judging by the reaction, many Belarusians were encouraged. Do you think Lukashenko and his entourage met the beginning of the year with what feelings?

- I think the dictator is now under severe stress. Events are developing in such a way that any, the most improbable scenarios are possible, which cannot even be calculated, let alone prepared. That is why Lukashenko is in panic.

The kidnapping and arrest of Maduro's friend, popular unrest in Iran show that turbulent times have come for dictators as well. Donald Trump, no matter how we evaluate him, has set in motion processes that have already become unmanageable. It used to be that only the "bad guys" broke the rules, and democratic states called them to order in vain. But suddenly it turned out that in Venezuela a dictator could be arrested at night in his own bedroom, and in Iran, in response to the killing of peaceful demonstrators, American long-range missiles could strike the decision-making centers.

So now Lukashenko is very uncomfortable. The end of the war is not favorable for the dictator. There is already information that the U.S. president intends to put an end to his mediation in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine by May 15.

Europe, as we see, continues to remain principled and does not intend to lift sanctions against the Belarusian dictatorship, as it poses a threat to the security of the EU countries. In this regard, Lukashenko's expectation that all Western sanctions will soon be lifted from him is not justified.

- On January 23, Lukashenko bypassed the General Staff and raised the alarm of the mechbrigade in Vitebsk region. Later, propagandists explained that the purpose of the test was to practice countering the "Venezuelan scenario," when the closest entourage and the army "surrendered" the dictator. Is it possible to repeat such a scenario in Belarus? Who can "surrender" Lukashenko?

- Anyone. Lukashenko can turn in his entire entourage, including his own sons. Do you think there are any normal human feelings and relations in his family? I'm sure they haven't. The dictator has committed so many crimes, including the murder of opponents, total corruption and theft, that everyone categorically does not want to get into the circle of his accomplices at the moment of reckoning.

Hence the panic, checks and working out the Venezuelan scenario. All this is a pathetic attempt of Lukashenko to say to his own entourage, "If you want to give me up, it won't work. But it is clear to everyone that in case of emergency such a special operation can be carried out in Belarus in no time, and no one will defend the elderly dictator at the cost of his own life. Everyone will willingly and amicably agree to the deal - just so as not to be lost. It is well known that Lukashenko has no support among the people, but we should not exaggerate his support by the cowardly nomenklatura.

- Maria Kolesnikova in an interview with Financinal Times said that Europe should follow the U.S. example and start a dialog with Lukashenko, because he is "a pragmatic man who understands the language of business." Her words caused a storm of criticism among Belarusians. Why are there such voices calling for the lifting of sanctions today and what "language" does Lukashenko really understand?

- Lukashenko understands only the language of force. And Maria Kolesnikova, who today calls for the "return of normal relations with the dictator," herself went free only thanks to the sanctions that were imposed against the Belarusian regime. If Lukashenko hadn't urgently needed to lift sanctions against Belavia and Belarusian potash, there would be no negotiations with the Americans, and neither Kolesnikova, nor other political prisoners would not have been released. Therefore, for starters, the chief of staff of Viktor Babariko should understand what is the cause and what is the effect.

Why are such voices being heard today? As a rule, either people who are ignorant and do not know the history of Lukashenko's relations with Western countries during 32 years of dictatorship in Belarus, or people recruited by the Belarusian special services are advocating the lifting of sanctions. I think Maria Kolesnikova is simply incompetent. In general, it's strange that a musician without higher education and any experience of political struggle, talks today about international politics and considers it normal to give advice to the leaders of Western countries. Five years that Maria Kolesnikova spent in a Belarusian prison, of course, cause respect, but do not add to her professionalism and competence.

Maria Kolesnikova complains today that the Belarusians did not understand her and "shayed" her, and says that she has the right to say anything after her imprisonment. On behalf of myself personally - please, speak any nonsense, but not on behalf of the Belarusians. Because it is extremely dangerous. We have already seen the precedent of the Russian Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), whose representatives are unable to say whose Crimea is theirs and support the Russian volunteer units in the AFU. As a result, all of this stigmatizes the entire Russian opposition, which has to constantly justify itself to Ukraine and Western countries.

Maria Kolesnikova, as well as her boss, former head of the Russian Belgazprombank Viktor Babariko, are also unable to give clear and precise answers to such questions. If they continue in the same vein and lobby for the legitimization of dictator Lukashenko, I think they will be quickly marginalized.

- Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky spoke about Belarus twice in just three days. First from the rostrum of the Davos forum, then - at the anniversary of Kastus Kalinowski's uprising in Vilnius. The Ukrainian head of state spoke about the 2020 protests, when the world did not support the rebellious Belarusians, and about the inevitability of democratic changes in Belarus. Why does the Ukrainian president speak about our country so often lately?

- It is certainly pleasing that the President of Ukraine has already spoken several times recently about Belarus, about the need for democratic reforms and the European way of development of our country. However, in my opinion, Vladimir Zelensky is too late to realize it. Many real opportunities to change the situation in our country were missed by the Ukrainian leadership.

In Davos, Zelensky reproached Europe for not properly supporting the revolution in Belarus in 2020. This is true. But what did the Ukrainian president himself do in the meantime? Nothing. Belarusian democratic forces did not receive any help either then or later. The Ukrainian authorities condemned the regime in Minsk only in words, started calling Lukashenko a self-proclaimed president, but did not impose serious sanctions against his regime. The Belarusian regime received billions of dollars from Ukraine for oil products from Russian oil, which were used, among other things, to strengthen the security forces and maintain Russian troops already on the territory of Belarus.

In 2021, Ukraine, although it was an associated state with the EU, did not support the sectoral sanctions imposed by the European Union against the Belarusian dictatorship. And this could have actually prevented the Russian army from advancing from the territory of Belarus into Ukraine in 2022, the inevitability of which Belarusian opposition politicians had been warning the authorities in Kiev for several years.

When the large-scale war began, Belarusian volunteers went to Ukraine en masse to fight. A Belarusian military unit was created under the International Legion, called the Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment. Then there were really all chances to create on the basis of this unit a full-fledged brigade or even a division of Belarusians. It was only necessary to give the Belarusians an opportunity to liberate their own country, thus protecting, by the way, Ukraine from the north. However, the matter did not go further than a few statements of Zelenski that such an operation was possible in the future. Belarusian volunteers were forbidden to even think about an offensive in Belarus.

Thousand citizens of Belarus heroically fought for the freedom of Ukraine, about a hundred people died. Today, Kalinovsky's regiment, in fact, no longer exists. Because the Belarusians were not given the opportunity to liberate their country, and also because of the lack of real assistance to the regiment from the office of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who sits on huge financial flows, but did not use her capabilities to help the Belarusian volunteer movement.

Hundreds of Belarusian volunteers continue to fight for Ukraine in different units of the AFU. They need support today just as much as Belarusian veterans of the war in Ukraine.

Why Vladimir Zelensky started talking more about Belarus now? It seems to me that this is just an attempt to troll and blackmail Lukashenko, an attempt to show him that if you threaten us with "Oreshnik", we can support your opposition. Nothing more than that. I want to be wrong, but so far I don't see any qualitative change of attitude towards the Belarusian democratic opposition and Belarusian volunteers.

- Zelensky met Svetlana Tikhanovska for the first time in Vilnius and invited her to Kiev. What steps could Ukraine take so that a real strategy towards Belarus could emerge?

- I think Zelensky's meeting with Tikhanovska is too overrated. A short conversation took place within the framework of events in honor of the anniversary of the January 1863 Uprising. Probably at the request of the Polish or Lithuanian presidents. It's good that the Belarusian opposition was represented at this event, but let's wait for concrete actions, not just words and jokes about Lukashenko's spitz. By the way, although the rights of Belarusians in their own country are really almost non-existent today, the Ukrainian president should not have compared the Belarusian people with a dog. And in general, one should not joke about the tragedy of the whole nation, the best representatives of which are in inhuman conditions in prisons.

For five years, we have seen hundreds of meetings of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya with world leaders, but the practical result of her visits is often zero. On the contrary, the attitude towards Belarusians in the EU countries and the USA only worsens, while the West has no strategy towards Belarus. Everything is limited to protocol photos and empty statements. That's why I don't expect much from her meeting with the Ukrainian president. What did they discuss according to the press service? Tikhanovska asked Zelenski to appoint a special representative for relations with the democratic opposition, to intensify cooperation of Ukrainian state bodies with its representatives and to start discussing the possibility of Lukashenko's criminal prosecution within the ICC. How will all this bring Belarus closer to freedom? It won't.

What does Ukraine really need to do now? To finally realize that without the liberation of Belarus, the threat to the country from the north will remain. Convince its Western allies, who are themselves under threat, first of all, the Baltic States and Poland. Together with European countries to form a strategy for the liberation of Belarus, including, depending on the situation, by military means. Given the fact that Lukashenko (and, therefore, Putin) continues to threaten European countries with nuclear missiles, both Ukraine and the EU countries have the right to act preventively in self-defense and their own security.

- On the anniversary of Kalinowski's uprising there was a symbolic shot with the flags of Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and the white-red-white flag of Belarus, and the presidents of Lithuania and Poland spoke about the European future of our country. You have previously stated that the West has not seen Belarus as part of Europe for a long time. Has this attitude changed now?

- Belarus is an integral part of Europe. Kastus Kalinowski is a Belarusian national hero, which also unites us with Lithuania and Poland. In 2019, when the remains of the leaders of the anti-Russian uprising were ceremonially reburied in Vilnius, most of the flags raised at the ceremony were Belarusian. At that time, this national upsurge among Belarusians was one of the precursors of the 2020 revolution.

What Germany or France do not want to understand yet, is well understood in Lithuania and Poland bordering Belarus. First, these countries are well aware of the history of our country, which for centuries was part of such European states as the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. We are close to Poles and Lithuanians historically and mentally, we were also occupied by the Russian Empire, as well as their lands. And we should also break away from Russia and return to Europe, becoming a free democratic country and a member of the European Union. And this is the only guarantee of security for Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Ukraine and Europe as a whole.

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