ISW: Putin Has Silently Admitted His Vulnerability

The Kremlin is powerless in the face of increased pressure from the US.

Moscow is using ongoing negotiations with the United States as a tool to contain a possible increase in U.S. pressure on Russia that could adversely affect its military efforts in Ukraine.

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this, analyzing statements by Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov.

What do Peskov's statements indicate?

Dmitry Peskov said on January 24 following talks in Abu Dhabi that the US president's "impulsive" foreign policy methods are not in line with Russia's, and the Kremlin sees it as an attempt to make others "bend."

He said those who have already "bent" so to speak in front of Donald Trump will "continue to bend" in the future, and, according to the Russian official, it is crucial that Russia does not do so in the future.

Analysts believe that since February 2025, Moscow has been trying to balance a show of force to its population and allies with sufficient engagement with the United States to avoid additional pressure from the American side.

The Kremlin does not want to allow actions by the United States that could force Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to compromise on his initial military objectives and begin meaningful negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

"Peskov's outspoken criticism of the foreign po Peskov's statement may be a tacit acknowledgement by the Kremlin of Russia's vulnerability to increased pressure," ISW wrote.

At the same time, experts note that the West, particularly the United States, has so far failed to break Vladimir Putin's "theory of victory," for example, through additional pressure, and the Kremlin has expressed no signs of willingness to compromise.

Allies avoid strengthening Ukraine's military capabilities, imposing sanctions and seizures of foreign Russian assets, and limiting Russia's access to the resources needed to sustain a prolonged war.

Also, ISW reported that despite trilateral talks between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia, Kremlin officials reaffirm allegiance to their original military objectives and reject Western security guarantees for Ukraine.

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