The Political Winds In Europe Have Shifted

In military books, these numbers are glowing red.

The words of Leszek Miller that "the only weapon Poland can give Ukraine is Ukrainians of draft age" have angered many. But let's put emotions aside.

For those who are not oriented in Polish politics: Leszek Miller is not a random grandfather from the Internet. He is the former prime minister of Poland (2001-2004). The man who brought Poland into the European Union - it is his signature that stands under the accession treaty. This is a "heavyweight" politician, a representative of the old school of realpolitik, known for his toughness and lack of sentimentality.

When a person of this caliber talks about you as "ammunition," it is not an emotional outburst. It's a voicing of what Western elites are cold-bloodedly thinking when they look at mobilization charts. And statistics are cruel and have no feelings.

In Europe alone there are now an estimated 850,000-900,000 Ukrainian men aged 24-59. These are not students who have recently been allowed to leave. This is the backbone of the mobilization force.

Even if you subtract those who worked here before the war, there remains a huge group that left after February 24, 2022. Estimates speak of more than 200,000 to 250,000 men in the prime of their lives who took advantage of the Shlyakh system, left as caretakers, or simply bought their way out and "forgot" to return.

To translate this into the military language Miller uses: 200,000 men is the equivalent of about 40-50 full brigades.

When Kiev asks for F-16s or Leopards, the West looks at these statistics. Politicians in the EU see the equivalent of an entire Ukrainian army of the early invasion model on their streets, drinking lattes in safe cafes.

So the former prime minister's words are a harbinger of a change in the political wind. For Europe, you are no longer "refugees", but an unused "resource". The comforts of living abroad put your guard down, but the war books have these numbers glowing red.

A question for you gentlemen aged 24-59: do you think that, with a shortage of men at the front, Europe will indefinitely ignore these 50 potential brigades it has at hand? The defense umbrella is cracking at the seams.

Piotr Izdebski, Facebook

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