The Time Of The Cheap Dollar Is Coming To An End
2- 12.01.2026, 8:17
- 10,572
When to wait for the American currency at three rubles?
The new fiscal year in the Belarusian foreign exchange market starts without sharp fluctuations in the exchange rates of foreign currencies. At the same time, the trend for a gradual weakening of the national currency is confirmed. What exchange rates to expect in mid-January, says financial analyst Mikhail Grachev in the traditional forecast for myfin.by.
Dollar is moving towards Br3
After the second (and again slightly reduced due to Christmas holidays) week of January, the Belarusian ruble weakened by 1.10% against the U.S. dollar. However, at the last trading on Friday, January 9, the dollar "discounted" -0.69% and stopped at USD/BYN 2.9345, although the whole week the "buck" grew in value up to USD/BYN 2.9550 on Thursday, January 8. On the same day, the volume of trading increased to $23.105 million and the total for the week amounted to $61.813 million.
The rate of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian currency market fell sharply against the Belarusian ruble at the first trading on Monday, January 5, but then gradually recovered and finished the second week of the year with a minimum minus of -0.05%. In fact, the ruble exchange rate returned to the value of the end of last year in RUB/BYN 3.7040 per 100 Russian rubles. But the ruble trading volume amounted to a minimum of RUB 3,470.650 million, i.e. about $40 million in equivalent. Or one and a half times less than the trading volume of the U.S. dollar on the BCSE for the same time.
Most likely, such low activity in the Russian currency and high volatility in the U.S. dollar were due to the fact that the Russian market until the beginning of this week was in the state of holiday vacations. This year Russians had 12 consecutive days of vacation. Whether this is bad or good is a question from another quiz, but as a result, the Russian currency market was in a semi-sleepy mode.
Dollar strengthens on world markets
Nevertheless, the second week of the year starts with almost the same quotes where 2025 ended. But there are exceptions - that's the global financial market. On Friday, January 9, the first NFPs for the United States this year came out, and they showed a strengthening U.S. economy. The number of newly created jobs decreased, the unemployment rate also became lower, and the average weekly wage (in the U.S. wages are paid weekly) increased. All this led to a stronger US dollar against the major currencies, with EUR/USD closing the week at 1.638.
Gold and silver made a great recovery in the first week of the year and closed Friday's trading at 4500.30 USD/Oz and 79.341 USD/Oz respectively. Moreover, the spot price of gold ended the week at 4508.80 USD/Oz. As we have repeatedly pointed out, the excess of the physical gold price over the "paper" gold price is a clear signal of the continuation of the upward trend. This is also evidenced by the fundamental factors in the form of constantly growing demand, which frankly exceeds the capabilities of mining and processing industries, which are the main suppliers of physical metal to the market. The shortage of supply with constantly growing demand cannot but lead to price growth.
Weekly Forecast
When trade volumes return to the Russian and Belarusian markets at the end of the vacations, the demand for "unfriendly" currencies will grow, which will lead to the weakening of national currencies. How quickly it will happen is not so important, but in general, this trend is likely to be formed in the near future.
This week, the dollar rate will probably return to the level above USD/BYN 2.955 - 3.070. The Russian ruble is losing ground on Belarusian trading.
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