Ukrainian Strikes On Refineries Will Have Several Implications For Russian Federation

ISW analysts named three major ones.

Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have exposed the aggressor country's vulnerabilities and will have several consequences. Among them are gasoline shortages in the country, higher inflation, and further macroeconomic instability.

This is according to a summary by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). In particular, on August 27, the Russian government announced the extension of the ban on gasoline exports, which was supposed to end on August 31.

Successful operations of SBU and SDF units

The restrictions will be in place for producers until September 30, and for non-producers - until October 31. Such a step was explained by an attempt to stabilize the domestic fuel market.

The very next day, August 28, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that units of the SBU and Special Operations Forces carried out a drone strike on the Kuibyshev oil refinery in the Samara region.

This enterprise annually processes about seven million tons of raw materials, producing gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and solvents. Also, Ukrainian troops along with the GUR and Unmanned Systems Troops struck the Afip refinery in the Krasnodar region, near the city of Krasnodar. This refinery has a capacity of 6.25 million tons per year and is of strategic importance for providing fuel to the Russian army.

The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation Andrey Kovalenko noted that both enterprises are key to the functioning of the Russian military machine.

Ukrainian strikes on refineries have exposed Russia's vulnerabilities and will have several consequences - ISW

Fuel shortages will have consequences in Russia

"Russia had been trying to meet domestic demand for gasoline even before the recent strikes in Ukraine and had imposed periodic bans on gasoline exports since 2022, but the recent strikes in Ukraine have exacerbated gasoline shortages and caused gasoline prices to rise sharply across Russia and occupied Ukraine," the piece stated.

Analysts added that gasoline shortages and soaring gasoline costs are likely to boost consumer spending and business spending across all sectors. This will strengthen inflationary expectations, accelerate overall inflation and increase both direct and indirect costs in the economy, which ultimately threatens a new wave of macroeconomic instability in Russia.

We would like to recall that on the night of August 28, explosions occurred in several Russian regions due to drone attacks. Oil refineries were again the target of the strikes. In particular, the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in the Samara region and the Afipsk refinery in the Krasnodar region came under attack.

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