Not The First Swallow For The Belarusian Economy

Following the gasoline crisis, an oil crisis is looming in Russia.

As a result of Ukrainian drone strikes, Russian oil refining has already lost 17 percent of its capacity. The Russian port of Ust-Luga could lose half of its oil transshipment capacity for the same reason, writes planbmedia.io.

After the gasoline, coal, budget, construction and manufacturing crises, Russia is also facing an oil crisis. Even economists loyal to the government are panicking and saying that by the fall all these crises could merge into one. If these apocalyptic forecasts come true, then very difficult times await the Belarusian economy.

Since the beginning of August, ten Russian oil refineries have already become victims of Ukrainian drone strikes. The Novoshakhtinsk refinery burned for four days and many fear that after such a fire there is little left of the refinery. Losses in Russian oil refining are estimated at ten to seventeen percent of total capacity.

But even if we take the lower limit, it is still a lot. In Crimea and Primorsky Krai, gasoline coupons have already had to be introduced. In the Kuril Islands, they simply banned the sale of AI-92 gasoline into private hands. Wholesale prices, followed by retail prices, are setting records. The ban on fuel exports did not help to cope with the crisis. Because if there is no gasoline, the bans will not make it appear.

And since there is less room for refining at Russian refineries, the Russian authorities planned to increase crude oil exports. But it turned out that things are not so unambiguous. Because Ukraine is demonstrating a systematic approach in its strikes on the Russian oil industry.

In addition to the refineries, the Unecha station and the port of Ust-Luga became victims of the strikes. As a result, oil transportation through the Druzhba pipeline has stopped completely, and Ust-Luga has lost half of its capacity. With the plan to increase exports by 200 thousand barrels per day, Russia's physical capacity to export has decreased by 500 thousand barrels.

But the gasoline crisis and now the oil crisis are not even the first swallows that promise hard times for the Russian economy. Disaster in the coal industry. Collapse in the agricultural machinery industry and just machine building. Tire production fell by 19% and was on the verge of a historical minimum. Crisis in construction and budget deficit, which a month ago was a trillion rubles more than Russia's remaining reserves. In addition to all this, the weather has also let us down. Because of the poor harvest in Russia, food prices are expected to rise sharply in the fall.

A couple of months ago, Russian economists were sad about the impending recession. Now recession seems to be a very optimistic scenario. Experts loyal to Putin say that crises in separate industries and spheres may merge into one in the fall.

"It's no longer a secret that we may have serious economic trials in the fall. The real production sector of the economy is in a very deplorable state. In the fall we may have several major enterprises declare bankruptcy, because they are in a pre-bankruptcy state. Well, and in the fall we will get a rise in prices for housing and utilities," wrote pro-Kremlin politician and member of the Public Chamber Georgy Fedorov.

The most apocalyptic forecasts include the collapse of production, inflation in the tens of percent. As well as food on cards and massive nonpayment of wages. But even a moderate economic crisis in Russia promises hard times for the Belarusian economy.

Because the crisis in Russia has not even begun yet, and the Belarusian economy is already feeling the consequences. But it will be worse further on. Because if you are ninety percent tied to the economy, which is sinking, yours will go down too. And the only salvation is to start shoveling away now. Not until it's too late.

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