ISW: Russia Prepares 'special Operation' After Alaska Summit

The Kremlin will abandon the peace accords.

Shortly before Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Alaska, Russian officials and media are preparing the information ground for Russia to back out of any future peace agreement to end the war. Whereas Trump has made it clear that at these talks, the U.S. will seek to return some economically and strategically significant territory to Ukraine.

This is the subject of a new report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

At the background of the preparations for the Alaska summit, ISW analysts noted that Kremlin officials continue to emphasize that Russia is unwilling to compromise and seeks to achieve its original military objectives in Ukraine. First Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee Alexei Chepa said Aug. 11 that the main issue of Putin and Trump's meeting will be to discuss ways to address the "root causes" of the war in Ukraine. ISW reminds us that this standard Kremlin wording usually masks several Russian demands, among them non-expansion of NATO, and Ukraine's accusations of alleged discrimination against Russian speakers. In addition, the Kremlin-affiliated Izvestia newspaper on August 11 published an article by Oleh Karpovich, vice-rector of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Diplomatic Academy, which claimed that Russia has not yet achieved its goal of protecting the Russian language and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP). The article also emphasized that Russia considers Ukraine's membership in NATO "impossible." Karpovich also stated that the "denazification" of Ukraine is "a matter of time."

The ISW reminds us that Putin and other Russian officials have consistently continued to demand the demilitarization of Ukraine (reducing the size of the Ukrainian armed forces so that Ukraine cannot defend itself against future Russian aggression), denazification (changing power in Ukraine and installing a puppet Russian government), and neutrality and non-NATO membership. Putin recently reiterated his uncompromising demands, ISW adds, noting on Aug. 1 that these conditions are demands only for a cease-fire, not a cessation of war. Therefore, Putin's demands are likely to be even more sweeping before he will agree to any agreement to end the war, ISW warns.

At the same time, Russian officials and media are also preparing informational conditions for Russia to reject any future peace agreement to end the war. In particular, Russian State Duma deputy Alexei Zhuravlev noted on August 9 that U.S. President Donald Trump is a "temporary person" due to U.S. presidential term limits, and that U.S. presidents often renege on agreements reached by their predecessors. The Russian ultranationalist publication Tsargrad, which is focused on attracting the Russian nationalist community to support Russia's war efforts, published an article on August 11 that argued that any agreement with Trump is an agreement only with his administration and not with the United States or the West as a whole. The article also claimed that the next U.S. administration will not abide by any agreement Trump makes with Putin, and therefore potential peace in Ukraine is "just a ceasefire" and the war will resume. Russian State Duma deputy Leonid Ivlev said on August 10 that Ukraine's constitution makes no sense and is only "the result of bargaining by Ukrainian politicians and oligarchs." The Kremlin has repeatedly said the Ukrainian government is illegitimate, which could give Russia an excuse to renege on a peace agreement signed with Ukraine whenever Russia wants it, ISW noted.

At the Aug. 15 meeting in Alaska, Putin may try to get concessions from Trump on the war in Ukraine by manipulating the prospect of U.S.-Russian arms control talks, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War added. In early August, Russia said it was abandoning a moratorium on limiting the deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles. Russia has long been in violation of the INF Treaty (it was concluded in 1987) and has publicly boasted of using and producing short- and medium-range missiles prohibited by the treaty - including the Oreshnik ballistic missile and possibly the Iskander missile. Therefore, ISW speculates, Putin may suggest that Trump offer to negotiate arms control treaties during a bilateral summit in Alaska on Aug. 15. However, renewing the RSMD Treaty or concluding a similar treaty would probably not lead to any significant changes in Russia's deployment and use of short- and medium-range missiles, although it could help Moscow gain preventive concessions from the United States regarding the war in Ukraine, ISW summarizes.

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