Trump Is Up To A Big Game

What happens after the deadline?

Trump gave Putin 10 days to end the war in Ukraine and return to negotiations. But these statements are actually more about China than Russia, and the war in Ukraine is not the main factor.

What is Trump up to?"

Now US President Donald Trump is playing a serious geopolitical game with Beijing.

Russia in this game is a tool for Trump to pressure China. That is why Trump is talking about imposing sanctions against China, with whom he is now having difficult negotiations. The main motive why Trump said the deadline was reduced is to speed up the signing of a trade agreement with Chinese President Si Jinping.

It is possible that Trump will also be interested in security issues, but China's intentions to strengthen its presence in the Indo-Pacific region and keep Russia under control are obvious. Trump cannot prevent them, and he has already realized this. The American president's project to "tear Russia away from China" has failed.

That is why Trump has decided that the time has come when some other action must be taken. However, those actions will not be directed directly against Russia. The deadline is actually laid out for China. The ultimate beneficiary of Russia's war against Ukraine and destabilization of the situation in Europe is China.

I should emphasize that the Russians have been actively trying to take control of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions since 2013, and now also Zaporizhzhya. This is precisely the region where rare earth metals are very abundant, on which industries around the world critically depend. Even the extension of the agreement with China was conditioned on the inability of the US at this stage to refuse imports of rare earth metals from China.

Why does Russia reject the ultimatum?"

Russia is ready to strengthen sanctions because China has assured it of support. A lot of contacts have taken place between Moscow and Beijing. Sergei Lavrov, Sergei Shoigu, Dmitry Medvedev often travel for talks, and they have managed to secure China's support. Beijing has already made a statement that it is not afraid of sanctions and will continue to cooperate with Russia.

Publicly, sanctions pressure on China has been talked about before, even during the presidency of Joe Biden. Repeatedly, the US has threatened Beijing with pressure and urged it to stop cooperating with Russia. At the same time, China said after the start of the full-scale invasion that it did not support sanctions against Russia because they were not agreed upon in the UN. So here we should rather talk about the willingness to sanction both countries.

What will happen after Trump's deadline?

I don't see any suggestion now that Russia will stop or Trump will get very tough on China and the Kremlin after August 9. The fact is that Trump has an attractive margin for maneuvering. He can say that the US is imposing sanctions, but against China they will start to take effect in 3 - 4 months or even six months.

This is the time Trump will use to bargain further with China. At the same time, Beijing will realize what consequences such duties will have for it. And we, in turn, will just watch this red tape.

An important thing to note is the escalation in relations between Moscow and Washington. With Beijing, Trump has so far been in no hurry to escalate the conflict, although he has threatened duties. And given that today's average duties for China are around 50%, and will be 100% - then China is theoretically ready for it. The imposition of duties will also be a reason for China to threaten Europe and the U.S. to support Russia's military escalation to the Baltic States and China's escalation to Taiwan.

What is happening now is a prelude to World War III, which, in my opinion, is already underway, but the theater of hostilities may expand significantly. It's no coincidence that Europe says they expect an attack in 2027.

We will hear a number of statements that somewhere at some point will impose duties, but I don't foresee concrete steps that would indicate Trump's serious willingness to help Ukraine. Yes, Trump is preparing to supply weapons to Ukraine, but only thanks to the Europeans. The Europeans, in turn, are in no hurry to spend money. Yes, the established SAFE fund is already receiving applications for loans from certain countries, even Hungary is ready to take money there to buy weapons, some of which will go to Ukraine, but this process will not be fast.

We need time to hold on. The situation is not easy, but it is not easy for the Russians either. The main question is - how strong a support will China be for Russia? We will see in time.

Valery Klochok, "Channel 24"

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