Alexander Shulga: All The Kremlin's Assets Have Gone Into The Bank
21- 5.07.2025, 21:16
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75% of Russians are ready to support peace.
With the arrival of US President Donald Trump many expected the war to end and the conclusion of a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia. It has become clear that these hopes were in vain.
Have these processes affected the mood of Russians? What emotions do they feel in connection with the fact that the war will continue? With such a question the site Charter97.org turned to doctor of sociology, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Conflictology and Analysis of Russia (ICAR) Alexander Shulga:
- In January 2025, we conducted both in-depth interviews with Russian men of conscription age (18-50 years old) and a general telephone sociological survey. Of course, the majority would like the war to end. We saw this also in the reactions on social media, in the discussions, in the main topics. The peace talks were the top topic. They collected the most attention, reactions, views - it was the topics related to Russian-American and Russian-Ukrainian-American negotiations.
It should be noted that the dominant organic topic in Russian social networks - organic, that is, not artificially hyped by publications and bots - are issues of an economic nature. If we take the all-Russian context, each region has its own problems, but first of all these are socio-economic difficulties: prices, inflation, purchasing power. This is evidence of both the worsening financial condition of Russians and the routinization of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which, in fact, took place back in 2024, and now it has finally taken hold.
If we talk about artificially created topics, it is interethnic relations and migration. We have seen this as early as 2024. That is, there is an attempt to shift the attention of Russians from domestic problems and war. War has ceased to be a switch of attention from economic problems, and now a new focus is required. Migration issues have become this focus. By the end of 2024, we have recorded a five-fold increase in the number of publications on migration. Of course, the impact of the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall must be taken into account. But after this event, the topic was actively moderated by Russian propaganda.
In 2025, we see a continuation of this trend. What occurred in Yekaterinburg - the raid against the Azerbaijani diaspora - was just an element of the campaign launched in 2024. The murder of two people and the resonance in Azerbaijani society and the reaction of the authorities is not an accident. Russian law enforcers received tacit authorization for tough actions within the framework of the anti-migrant campaign. Therefore, the current aggravation between Azerbaijan and Moscow is a logical development. If not this week, something similar would have happened next week or in a month anyway. Russians are being manipulated: the war has ceased to be a means of holding on to power, it has become a problem from which attention must now also be diverted. Now they are trying to promote the topic of migration as a new distraction: the problem of unadapted migrants, their cultural and physical threat.
The demand for an end to the war among Russians exists - at least 70%. The question is the conditions under which they want it to end. We asked this question in 2023, 2024 and 2025. To avoid risk, we used the term "SWO". Only 13-15% of respondents answered that the war should continue until complete victory, that is, until the capture of all of Ukraine. About 15% more said: a year, two years - tolerable. But about 60-70% are in favor of specific terms. 41% believe that the war should end within six months. This is a stable figure since 2024. Another 20% say: no more than a year. This is an overwhelming majority.
If Vladimir Putin announced the end of the war right now, 75% of Russians would support it. This trend appeared as far back as 2023. It takes Putin to say: that's it, we're done. The argument that Russians would not understand such a move is false. Most would understand and approve. A persistent narrative has formed: "it was better before the SWO".
Now it's summer, and summer is a period of delayed effect. Last year, products that should have become cheaper - potatoes, onions, cabbage - went up in price. Now the rise in prices is even faster. The main socio-economic consequences and changes in attitudes towards the war will manifest themselves in the fall.
War has ceased to be a tool for holding on to power. Now it is just one of the problems from which society needs to be distracted.
- Serious problems have begun in the Russian economy. And they have already begun to affect the lives of ordinary Russians. Just the other day, for example, the prices for housing and utilities services have risen. Do Russians have a logical connection between the war and the deterioration of the quality of life? Will this translate into something?
-You know, yes. Strangely enough, there is a logical connection. At the beginning of the year, we asked a question - not directly: "Do you realize that Putin has brought the country to such a point?" - so it is impossible from a methodological and safe point of view. We asked differently: "What priorities should the president have?" Most Russians answered - ending the war.
The officials understand this as well. They openly say that the Russian economy is exhausted and cannot continue to wage war. They can't say it directly, but it's obvious. As long as the war is going on, it is impossible to improve the situation.
Russians understand: it is impossible to solve socio-economic problems as long as the war continues. This is already a consensus - both in the elite and in society. The cause has not been eliminated, and the symptoms are being treated. They are only trying to dull the pain.
The Kremlin is trying its best to minimize the consequences of the sanctions and the war itself. We see how all the Kremlin's resources and assets have been put into the bank. No one thinks about reputation. Viktor Orban, for example, is already repeating Moscow's rhetoric almost verbatim. Sometimes it is not even clear who is speaking - a Russian official or the Hungarian prime minister. I don't know what the amount of bribes must be for him to talk like that, but his activity is an important indicator: Russia needs not only the absence of new sanctions, but also the lifting of old ones.
Now all the Kremlin's efforts - economic, political, diplomatic - are aimed at prolonging the war as long as possible without addressing its root cause. From time to time, publications appear: "We will fight until the end of the year, and then we will come to the negotiating table." Apparently, they do not have the strength for more.