Russian Companies' Debts To The Pension Fund Have Doubled

Pension and benefit payments are in jeopardy.

Debt of Russian companies on insurance contributions - i.e. contributions for pension and medical care of employees - for the period from January to March 2025 increased by 22% and reached 352 billion rubles. This is reported by "Izvestia" with reference to the data of the Accounts Chamber. For comparison: as of June 2024, the arrears were almost half as much - 179 billion rubles, according to the audit document, writes The Moscow Times.

In the opinion of experts interviewed by the publication, the main reason for the growth of arrears is the deterioration of the financial situation of enterprises against the background of high key rates. This has especially affected small and medium-sized businesses. As explained by Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov, companies in such conditions primarily allocate working capital for current needs - payment of salaries, rent, purchases - while insurance premiums are on the back burner. Professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Yulia Dolzhenkova notes that in 2025, economic growth is expected to slow down, and in some industries a recession is possible. This, according to her, will exacerbate the situation and lead to further delays in the payment of contributions.

An additional factor is the growth of informal employment and "gray" payment schemes, when part of the salary is issued unofficially, in order to minimize the tax burden. Vladimir Chernov specifies that at the same time the level of wages continues to grow in the economy as a whole, and with it the amount of mandatory insurance deductions, which increases the pressure on business.

Yulia Dolzhenkova also points out another possible mechanism: in an effort to reduce production costs, companies reduce staff and outsource functions or hire employees through third-party organizations. In such cases, insurance payment obligations fall on intermediaries, who do not always fulfill them on time or in full.

Growing debts of companies on contributions pose a potential risk to the stability of the Russian Social Fund's budget, especially if the trend continues in the second half of the year, warns Vladimir Chernov. Although at the end of the first quarter of 2025, the SFR's revenues exceeded its expenditures by 200 billion rubles, the fund's stability is largely ensured by transfers from the federal budget, the expert adds.

According to the Accounts Chamber, in the first quarter of 2025, the Social Fund budget received 2.8 trillion rubles of insurance premiums - this is 15% more compared to the same period last year.

But Chernov emphasizes: if the volume of underpayments continues to grow at a higher rate, it could lead to a budget deficit of the fund. In this case, additional injections from the federal treasury will be required, as well as stricter control over employers.

The consequences of the increase in arrears may be systemic, the expert believes. Firstly, it reduces resources for payment of pensions, benefits and other social obligations - especially if the growth rate of payments will not match the level of revenues. Secondly, it increases the burden on bona fide taxpayers. In the long term, this situation may undermine the stability of the insurance system and reduce the level of social security of citizens, warns Chernov.

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