The Corridors End In A Wall

How the West should respond to Putin and Lukashenko's attack on the Baltic states.

First just facts, then their interpretation, then a forecast, and then a wish.

- In September, Belarus will host the joint exercise "West-2025" with Russia, as well as the directly related "Interaction-2025", "Search-2025" and "Echelon-2025". In May 2025, the Baltic Fleet has already held a major exercise, and now a new exercise called "July Storm" has begun.

- On the front in Ukraine, all the tanks have practically disappeared, meanwhile their production and restoration has not stopped. So, they are accumulated somewhere.

- Modernization and strengthening of railroads, bridges, construction of new branches in the direction of the borders with the Baltic States are taking place.

- Large field hospitals, fuel and lubricants and ammunition depots are being created in Belarus and Kaliningrad region.

- Civil defense exercises were held in Kaliningrad.

- The Moscow and, more importantly, the Leningrad Military District was reconstituted.

- Conscription ceased to be seasonal (spring-autumn) and became year-round.

- A massive sweep of semi-official Telegram channels began.

- A shutdown of WhatsApp (and possibly Telegram) is being prepared with a switch to domestic Mah.

There is now an interpretation:

- Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2014 and in 2022 began under the cover of military exercises.

- Putin is not so much afraid of war, the military economy is already working at full capacity, as he is afraid of peace - when the entire pyramid collapses, hundreds of thousands of soldiers will return from the front with weapons, and there will be nothing to justify repression.

- The Security Council is sure that Estonians, Lithuanians and Latvians will not resist like Ukrainians. Besides, they lack the combat experience that only two countries in the world have today - Russia and Ukraine. Plus a huge "fifth column".

- Since all decisions in NATO are made collectively, there is always the hope to "scuttle" their adoption with the help of Putin's reliable friends Hungary and Slovakia. And is Paris ready to die for Kaunas?

- Cutting a corridor to Kaliningrad together with the "return to home harbor" of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, as well as the final annexation of Belarus, plus four "new" regions in Ukraine can be sold to the electorate for a complete and final victory.

- Putin always acts the same way - in a difficult situation he doubles the stakes, so that there is something to bargain with.

Now the forecast. What to watch very carefully:

- A sharp increase in propaganda aimed at the Russian-speaking population of the Baltic States. Accusations of "genocide", "infringement of rights", "Nazism".

- Creation of fake news about the forthcoming "NATO attack on Kaliningrad" or "provocations against Belarus". It was you who wanted to attack us first. I'll show you on the map where the attack was coming from.

- A truce in Ukraine is quite possible. Trump won - give the guy a Nobel Prize. And a quick transfer of forces to Belarus.

- It is possible that Russia will simply switch to defense - Ukraine has no forces now to switch to counterattacks.

- Perhaps a demonstrative ground test of nuclear weapons somewhere on Novaya Zemlya. If anything, we will strike.

- It is possible that no one will declare mobilization - just several times more summonses will come. And you prove it! We need to keep a close eye on the increase in the workload of military commissions. Even the borders do not need to be closed - young people of conscription age will simply not be able to leave.

- Massive cyberattacks will begin on state institutions, banks and energy infrastructure of the Baltic States in order to sow chaos and panic. Possible explosions at military warehouses.

- Special attention to Narva, where about 90% of the population is Russian-speaking. The proclamation of a "Narva People's Republic" is possible. All this will be conducted under the sauce - this is an internal Estonian affair, NATO - stay out of it.

And now a proposal:

- It is physically impossible to conceal the preparation of an operation of this size. As soon as there is evidence of invasion preparations, it is necessary:

- The Financial Times reported in February that Trump plans to withdraw US troops from Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to "placate" Putin. Doing this should not be done in any case. On the contrary, other NATO countries need to be brought in as well.

- Attacking them would mean attacking all leading NATO countries at once, which would automatically activate Article 5 and deprive Russia of hope for a "local conflict".

- The NATO leadership should loudly declare that it will fight for the Baltic states as much as for Paris or London.

- No talk and no collective discussions. All command of NATO forces must be placed in one hands and ready to use force instantly.

- In case these measures do not stop the aggressor, one must be prepared to launch a first strike against Russian troop concentrations before attacking. As Israel did in the Six Day War.

- If NATO fails to fulfill its primary Article 5 obligation to Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, NATO as a military alliance will cease to exist on the same day. Poland, Finland, Romania and other eastern European countries will realize that the security guarantees are a sham. They will immediately start either building their own nuclear arsenals or seeking a separate peace with Russia.

- The price of inaction for the West will be incomparably higher than the price of a decisive military response.

Dmitry Chernyshev, Facebook

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