Putin's Impunity Is Coming To An End
1- 17.07.2025, 14:42
- 11,166
The head of the Kremlin has reason to worry.
Recent days have seen some of the worst attacks on Ukrainian civilians since the war began in February 2022. According to the head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), Daniel Bell, an increase in missile and drone attacks across the country has led to more deaths and destruction among civilians far from the front lines.
Why should Putin be worried?"
Factually, according to new data from HRMMU, which has been tracking human casualties throughout Russia's major bombing campaign, the monthly civilian casualty rate in Ukraine in June was the highest in more than three years. Among civilians, 232 people were killed and another 1,343 Ukrainians were injured during the one-month period.
While conditions for civilians have been horrific, the surge in Russian violence could also be a turning point in Ukraine's favor. U.S. President Donald Trump has already signaled a change in his position that Ukrainians and their allies across the West hope will be maintained.
Trump's decision to supply lethal missiles (paid for by Europe) that will allow Ukraine to continue its fight against Russian aggression reflects his gradual loss of confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin's willingness to negotiate a peace deal. Likewise, Trump's accompanying threat to impose new sanctions is a response to Putin's failure to fulfill his promises.
Putin has another cause for concern. On July 15, the Ukrainian parliament voted overwhelmingly to create, along with the Council of Europe, a special tribunal to try Russia for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. This decision by Ukraine ratifies an agreement signed in Strasbourg on June 25 during Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky's first visit to the Council of Europe.
A clear signal has now been sent that there will be no safe haven for Putin and his supporters who have decided to launch a war of aggression against Ukraine. The future tribunal will allow all top leaders of the Russian state to be investigated.
Although heads of state, heads of government and foreign ministers enjoy personal immunity from prosecution, this will not be a barrier to gathering evidence against them and being ready to bring a formal indictment as soon as they leave office.
This agreement comes after the Council of Europe suspended Russia's representation rights in February 2022, after 26 years of membership The International Criminal Court has already issued arrest warrants for Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia's children's rights commissioner, for her role in the illegal deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia. Last year, ICC judges issued arrest warrants for former Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Russian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov for attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
But the tribunal was necessary, because despite jurisdiction over war crimes, crimes against humanity (which now encompass the destruction of schools, hospitals and infrastructure, as well as deliberate attacks on civilians) and genocide committed on Ukrainian territory, the ICC cannot prosecute Russia's political and military leaders for the crime of aggression.
This is because Russia is not a party to the Rome Statute, which founded the ICC, and because the country's veto power at the UN prevents the Security Council from referring the matter to the Court.
That leaves only a special tribunal to investigate Putin's core crime: the planning, preparation and execution of the invasion, occupation and attempted annexation of Ukraine, beginning with the 2014 invasion of Crimea.
Prosecuting the regime for the crime of aggression against Ukraine is entirely consistent with the mission of the Council of Europe, founded after World War II, when much of the continent lay in ruins. Its aim is to uphold the rule of law and human rights. It would also send an important signal that a rules-based system is still the best way to create a more stable and peaceful world.
This signal is needed now more than ever as Putin builds up the Russian war machine and increases pressure in Ukraine not only on the frontline but also on civilians. The Kremlin has reportedly imported workers from Asian and African countries to bolster the labor force in drone factories, and China has been accused of supplying vital components in large quantities.
So what happened this week is significant. New U.S. weapons will soon begin arriving, and a message has been delivered to Putin and his criminal cabal: criminal charges will be filed, and there will be nowhere to hide. Simply put, there will be few places left outside of Russia where Putin can be sure he won't face the humiliation of a potential arrest. His impunity is coming to an end.
Gordon Brown, Project Syndicate
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