The Regime Will Collapse Like A House Of Cards.
- Anatoly Kotov
- 17.06.2025, 15:03
- 17,296
The Belarusian generals should think seriously.
Belarusian political scientist Anatoly Kotov commented for Charter97.org on the consequences of the Israeli airstrikes on Iran and their possible impact on the international situation, including for the regime of Alexander Lukashenko. According to him, these events not only showed Israel's technological superiority, but also demonstrated the vulnerability of authoritarian regimes:
- Iran is one of the most technologically advanced allied countries of Moscow or the Moscow-Pyongyang-Tehran axis. It has had the ability to cause trouble for its neighbors and to finance and arm proxy terrorists-Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah.
But the backdrop of Israel shows not just a difference, but a technological chasm. The air defense of the past generation, consisting of Soviet or Russian samples, is incapable of defending against modern weaponry. On the other hand, even massive missile and drone strikes by the best Iranian designs are unable to break through modern Israeli-American air defenses in any significant quantity.
The expert also drew attention to the fact that the situation with Iran can be a warning for Minsk:
- Applied to the Belarusian realities, it means the following: if there is political will, the same thing can happen to the Belarusian air defense and infrastructure that works for war as to the Iranian one. That is, they will simply cease to exist. It is naive to believe that the coordinates of the targets are unknown.
To inflict serious damage in response is unlikely. There will be losses, there will be casualties, but the consequences will not be comparable. Here we should seriously consider how safe it is to deepen military-technical cooperation with Russia, Iran, DPRK and Pakistan. How safe it is to involve civilian enterprises in the production of military equipment.
In his opinion, the Lukashenko regime understands this perfectly well, so it prefers to keep a cautious position:
- That is why they are silent. To unambiguously side with Iran is to finally break off relations with Israel, and thus with the U.S. and Europe. That is a very bad prospect. That's why there is silence and expectation that it will pass.
The political scientist also compared the fate of the Iranian leadership with the potential fate of the Belarusian dictator:
- At the moment, the top of the IRGC, the army and the nuclear program have been liquidated. Secrecy, security measures and even bunkers have not saved them. Therefore, the fate of the Supreme Ayatollah, we can say frankly, is in the hands of US President Donald Trump. In the event of further escalation, he will lose the "immunity" given to him by the customs of international law rather than physical measures of defense.
In this case, it can be predicted that the regime will collapse like a house of cards. For Minsk, this will mean that it too has no "immunity." The generals who dream about the Suvalka corridor or "Vilnius in three days" should seriously think about it - they have no "immunity" anymore.
The expert also emphasized that Lukashenko is more concerned about his own fate than the fate of his allies:
- It can be said that Lukashenko hardly regrets the death of his "friends". His thoughts are rather preoccupied with his own prospects. Until the Rahbar (Iran's supreme leader - ed.) is eliminated, this is a worry. If this happens, and the likelihood of the scenario increases with every rocket fired at Israel, there will be panic. Dictators are extremely sensitive to the deaths of other dictators. The fate of Muammar Gaddafi or Nikola Ceausescu causes serious psychological trauma.
Anatoly Kotov also noted that the "elite" of the regime in the event of a potential crisis is the first to be crushed:
- In addition, anxiety is heightened by the fact that Israel is methodically destroying not only the top of the military or intelligence services, including newly appointed ones. The propaganda infrastructure is being hit. In other words, the two pillars on which the regime clings will obviously come under attack first.
The fate of Iran's security forces, whom no one is able to protect, or Syria's security forces, whom Bashar al-Assad betrayed, does not contribute to the regime's stability. In the event of a potential crisis, it's every man for himself, and it's the "elite" that will be the first to get crushed. So, Lukashenko is not thinking about the Iranians, he is thinking about himself and how to prevent panic in his immediate environment.
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