SIPRI: The "Axis" Of Russia, China, Iran And North Korea Has Failed To Materialize

The authoritarian powers proved incapable of coordination.

Russia's military axis with authoritarian states such as China, North Korea and Iran has now failed, according to a study on global arms proliferation by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (translated by The Moscow Times).

The researchers described the resumption of a dangerous nuclear arms race, but do not believe in the coordination of military interaction between an "axis" of authoritarian powers.

Although the SIPRI report notes arms shipments to Russia from North Korea and Iran, as well as geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia with China, it emphasizes that speculation about the creation of a China-Russia-North Korea-Iran military "axis" is exaggerated. Nevertheless, SIPRI notes that U.S. President Trump may be pushing these countries closer together and his administration is dividing "spheres of influence." Trump could ostensibly negotiate with China and Russia to divide regions of the world, but he could lead the world into more global instability, SIPRI noted.

Russia and the US together possess approximately 90% of all nuclear weapons. In previous years, dismantlement of obsolete warheads in Russia and the US has been taking place, which has outpaced the deployment of new ones. At the expense of which the world arsenal of nuclear weapons was reduced. But China, which is building up its stockpile at the fastest pace and, according to SIPRI estimates, has 600 nuclear warheads, is out of the picture. From 2023, its nuclear arsenal is growing at a rate of 100 new warheads a year. By the end of the decade, it may have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as Russia or the United States. By 2035, China could reach its maximum projected warhead count of 1,500, which would be about a third of the current Russian and U.S. stockpiles.

This rate of arsenal filling could change the parity in the distribution of nuclear weapons among NATO countries and the military axis with Russia, the DPRK and North Korea. NATO countries with allies (the US, France, UK and Israel) now have 5,933 warheads, while Russia, China and the DPRK have 6,230.

Virtually all nine nuclear-armed states involved in the arms race - the US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel - have accelerated nuclear weapons modernization programs in 2024. In total, there were approximately 12,241 warheads in the world as of January 2025, with 9,614 in military stockpiles. Some 3,912 of these warheads were deployed on missiles and on aircraft. About 2,100 warheads are placed on ballistic missiles. Russia, the United States and China keep missiles with nuclear warheads on high alert.

If there is no new agreement to reduce the stockpile, the number of warheads placed on missiles is likely to increase after START III expires in February 2026. "The era of reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which has lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end," said Hans M. Christensen, associate scientist in SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction program. - We see a clear trend toward growing nuclear arsenals, escalating nuclear rhetoric, and the abandonment of arms control agreements."

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