WP: Moscow Is Losing A Historic Partner In The Middle East

Israeli attacks could trigger regime change in Iran.

The open armed conflict between Israel and Iran is now in its fourth day, and Moscow's fears of possible geopolitical losses are growing louder. Russian elites realize that the current escalation could spell disaster for Tehran, Moscow's main ally in the Middle East, writes The Washington Post.

"The situation is developing in a dangerous direction for Russia," acknowledged Konstantin Zatulin, director of the Institute of CIS Countries.

The conflict began with Israel's large-scale bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities and the elimination of key commanders. The Kremlin initially saw it as an opportunity for diplomatic maneuvering. Prominent businessman and conservative ideologue Konstantin Malofeev said:

"Only a summit between Russia and the United States, between Putin and Trump, can save the world from disaster. It's time for the Americans to leave us Ukraine."

He also suggested that Russia could use its long-standing ties with Iran to bring Tehran back to the nuclear deal talks in exchange for concessions from the US.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin moved swiftly to initiate mediation, holding talks with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump.

Analysts in Moscow have predicted that the conflict could reduce Western attention to the war in Ukraine and lead to higher oil prices, potentially benefiting Russia. But Israel's further deepening into Iranian territory, strikes on infrastructure and the threat of regime change are worrisome.

"The biggest threat is that any resolution of the crisis risks Russia's position in the region," said a Russian scholar close to diplomatic circles. "If Netanyahu is able to provoke regime change, the new government is unlikely to be as favorable to Moscow as the current Iranian regime."

He added:

"Even if the regime withstands the attacks, a nuclear arms race in the Middle East will begin, which is also not in Russia's interest. It is difficult to find a situation here where Russia would win."

On the background of losing ground in Syria, Iran's probable defeat would be an even bigger blow: "Iran is bigger, and it is our historical partner and neighbor," the expert stressed.

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