Ukrainian SVR: Moscow May Lose Its Financial Cushion In 2026

The sanctions are working.

In three years of full-scale invasion, Russia has spent most of its National Welfare Fund (NWF). But in 2026, Moscow may also be left completely without a financial cushion.

This is reported by the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service.

It is noted that if the current sanctions restrictions continue and the West strengthens control over circumventing oil sanctions, in 2026 Russia may lose the last remnants of its financial cushion.

Official data show that in early July 2022, the liquid part of the fund amounted to $145 billion. A year later, this amount was almost halved to 78 billion, and as of May 1, 2025, only 39 billion remained. Thus, Russia's reserves have almost quadrupled.

In addition, the SVR notes that if the average price of Brent oil drops to $64 per barrel in 2025 and to $60 in 2026, Russia's budget, which depends heavily on energy resources, will be under serious fiscal pressure.

The intelligence agency also noted that the economic situation inside the country is deteriorating: Rosatom's projects for 2025 are underfunded by 80%, rail transportation is falling, and the mining, metallurgical and construction industries are in decline. At the same time, a number of large companies have suspended dividend payments.

"Despite this, Moscow continues to demonstrate confidence in the stability of the economy. But the state propaganda is not able to hide the real scale of the crisis - the raw materials model of the Russian economy is rapidly losing its effectiveness", - summarized the SVR.

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