Ruble Casino: What Awaits The Belarusian National Currency
1- 1.06.2025, 10:04
- 7,710
Why you should not believe Russian economists.
Against the background of economic instability in Russia, optimistic forecasts are becoming louder and louder. The dollar is about to collapse to 60 RUB, the rate will go down, and the economy will go up. Sounds too good to be true. "Belarusians and the market" studied who benefits from such forecasts and how they will affect Belarus.
Summer miracles: the dollar at 60-70?
The dollar will fall to 70 RUB in summer. This was stated by economist Igor Balynin, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.Another financial analyst, Mikhail Vasiliev, predicted that the dollar will fall to 60 RUB if sanctions are lifted.
Fact: when drawing up the Russian federal budget for 2025, the Ministry of Finance laid down an average annual rate of 96.5 rubles per dollar.
Key rate - will there be a cut?"
Ovanes Oganisyan, director of the analytical department of "Tsifra Broker", said that the Central Bank of Russia will reduce the key rate to 19% as early as June.
Sofia Donets, an economic analyst, predicts a reduction to 15% by the end of the year, but, according to her, the dollar rate will rise to 95-100 rubles already in July-August - due to changes in trade flows and demand for currency.
Fact: at the current moment (June 1, 2025) the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia - 21%. The Bank of Russia meeting at which this issue will be considered is scheduled for June 6, 2025. Inflation in Russia according to the latest data is 10.23% per annum. (Source: Bloomberg)
Why these forecasts should not be blindly believed
Many analysts and economists in Russia and abroad point out: expectations of a sharp strengthening of the ruble are not supported by either macroeconomics or the logic of the Central Bank's policy.
Urals oil prices are barely holding steady at 69.7 USD per barrel.
Since May 30, Russia has introduced restrictions on transfers without opening an account: the limit is 100,000 rubles, anything above that is subject to identification only.
The prospects for a return to SWIFT are bleak. Anton Siluanov bluntly stated, "Russia has no dialogue with the United States on SWIFT."
Belarus is hostage to the neighboring economy
This will affect the economy of Belarus and its residents. In 2025, about 60% of Belarus' foreign trade occurs with Russia. In addition, the vast majority of Belarusian transit to third countries goes through Russia. Russia is also the main creditor of Belarus on foreign financial markets.
All this now determines the critical importance of the state of the neighboring economy for changes in the state of the Belarusian economy. The health of the Russian economy is now almost directly dependent on the health of the domestic economy.
Ah dreams-dreams...
Russian experts broadcast more hope than analysis. A decline in the dollar to 60-70 is unlikely under the sanctions regime, currency shortages, export slump and frozen assets. Although in theory it is not harmful to dream.
The Bank of Russia rate will be reduced only if inflation goes down, demand goes up, and the inflow of currency stabilizes. So far, none of these points are being fulfilled in Russia.
Belarusian business and citizens should be guided by reality, not political illusions. As long as the Russian economy remains unstable, Belarus needs to diversify trade and logistics in order not to depend on every statement of Russian commentators.
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