ISW: Kadyrov's Death Could Be A Threat To Putin

The North Caucasus will go up in flames.

The resignation of Ramzan Kadyrov as head of the Chechen Republic without an appropriate successor could threaten the stability of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's regime.

This is said in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

It recalled that Kadyrov told local journalists about his desire to step down. However, he later clarified that only Putin could grant the request.

Kadyrov said he was a "command man" and would follow orders from the leader of the Kremlin regime, implying that he would keep his position if Putin so decides.

The ISW noted that it is unclear how seriously the Chechen dictator takes the request, as he has periodically expressed his desire to resign since 2016 and then retracted those statements.

Analysts noted that Kadyrov "acted as a stabilizer" in the Chechen Republic and other regions of the North Caucasus during "particularly tense moments" since the early 2000s that could pose a threat to the stability of Putin's regime.

As ISW assures, the death of the Chechen dictator or his departure from office, if it occurs during or immediately after the end of the war in Ukraine, could leave Putin's interests in the North Caucasus unprotected unless an appropriate successor is appointed.

At the same time, the report added that it is currently unknown who could succeed Kadyrov in the event of his resignation or death.

Earlier, Novaya Gazeta Europe wrote that only two of Kadyrov's 14 children "play a significant role" in Chechnya's future: 26-year-old Aishat Kadyrova and 17-year-old Adam Kadyrov. The Chechen dictator himself has positioned Adam Kadyrov as his obvious successor.

The ISW stressed that Kadyrov has given favorable appointments to Adam, arranged meetings between him and Putin, and probably favored him as heir over his eldest son Akhmat.

The report recalled that Adam Kadyrov is known for inciting inter-ethnic tensions after footage emerged in September 2023 showing him beating a detained man accused of burning the Koran. This act of his was commended and subsequently rewarded by Ramzan Kadyrov.

In 2024, Novaya Gazeta Europa reported that Kadyrov had been suffering for more than five years from a disease with a mortality rate of up to 80% - pancreatic necrosis. Journalists believe that his disease is progressing. Although Kadyrov is trying to hide his deteriorating condition with increased media activity, in recent months he has increasingly disappeared from public space for long periods of time.

In March 2025, Important Stories wrote that the Chechen dictator is in conflict with the Kremlin over negotiations with other countries over the safety of his assets and family.

According to the publication, amid his deteriorating health, Kadyrov tried to negotiate with leaders of Muslim countries secretly from the Kremlin, but Russian security services found out about it and reported to Vladimir Putin.

At the same time, Novaya Gazeta Europe reported that the information about Kadyrov's conflict with Putin was not true. The newspaper's sources said the Kremlin is using Kadyrov's connections in the Middle East to negotiate with Qatar, which could influence the new Syrian authorities to agree to keep Russian military bases in the country.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com