Potatoes Are Striking Back

The Belarusian economy is increasingly getting into a ridiculous situation.

Lukashenko is a famous fighter against deficit. At one time he was famous for the phrase: "Just when I started to eat eggs, butter disappeared. Now potatoes are gone. Disruptions with them showed the essence of the "socially oriented economy". Administrative regulation and distortions in agrarian policy led to shortages and rising prices. And attempts of the authorities to hide the problem only aggravated it.

The market strikes back

In the third decade of the authoritarian regime's existence, the Belarusian economy is getting into ridiculous situations more and more often.

The potato problems are an example of absurdity. Being unable to promptly solve the issue, the authorities openly urge the population to be patient. "Let's suffer a month more," suggested Lukashenko.

The situation with potatoes exposes the essence of the Belarusian model of economic management: the state ignores market mechanisms, regulates prices and restrains competition, limiting the villagers in choosing the market.

However, when the market proves to be stronger once again, the responsibility is shifted to anyone - from the residents themselves, who are accused of excessive demands, to the agrarians, who prefer to sell their products more expensive in Russia, instead of selling them for next to nothing in the domestic market. The traditional search for the culprits among the opposition abroad is not missing either.

The potato problem is an example of how inefficiently the so-called socially oriented economy of the Belarusian model works. The state has been insisting on preserving this model for decades, despite its obvious shortcomings and unpreparedness for market challenges.

Huge sums of money are poured into the village. But what's the use?

The 2025 budget plans to allocate more than 1 billion rubles to support the agricultural sector, which is about 14% of all funds allocated to support the national economy. At the same time, the experience of previous years shows that actual expenditures may significantly exceed the planned figures.

Repeatedly - shameful

The Belarusian model of "socially oriented economy", formed over three decades, is now increasingly demonstrating systemic failures. The disgrace with potatoes is an eloquent example.

The problem, however, is not only in the model itself, but also in those who implement it. Many representatives of the Belarusian official nomenclature have an agricultural background. It would seem that this should help in managing at least the agrarian sector. However, in practice their experience rather drags the economy backwards. It was formed in the framework of the Soviet paradigm, where agriculture was focused on minimizing losses through state subsidies and cross-subsidies, rather than on real market efficiency.

Instead of creating sustainable market mechanisms, officials continue to copy the old model: agriculture should at least not be unprofitable, but for this purpose it is necessary to attract resources from other, more efficient sectors.

This logic leads to distortions in the economy: instead of developing and modernizing the agricultural sector, the main goal of the economy is to develop and modernize it. In this case, their main competitive advantage disappears.

Therefore, the system purposefully maintains a certain level of inefficiency, and the "socially oriented" economy de facto turns into maintaining the status quo at the level of minimum acceptable survival, and more often only with state support.

As a result, scarce agricultural products (e.g., potatoes or cabbage, as it is now) become not just a matter of food security, but an indicator of a systemic crisis.

When do such problems arise? As soon as the next agrarian season brings new difficulties, the problem resurfaces again, and with it the familiar ways of problem solving for officials.

The model of agricultural regulation in Belarus has long ago turned into a vicious circle: an attempt to control prices leads to deficit, deficit - to new control measures, and control - to a decrease in efficiency.

At the same time, the real reasons - lack of market mechanisms and systemic inefficiency of management - remain unresolved. But since such inefficiency is beneficial to the system of governance itself, its maintenance becomes a part of the regime's survival strategy.

* * * * *

The potato crisis is just one of the manifestations of the deep problems of the Belarusian economy. When market laws are suppressed by administrative regulation, any attempts to keep prices down or stabilize supplies run into the wall of market reality.

But even when potatoes appear in stores, the problems will not disappear - it will be just another temporary illusion of stability.

The very system of state governance, which is based on the "sovok," is vicious.

Ales Gudiya, "Pozirk"

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