US Vs. Iran: Will Middle East Burn?

Trump is playing to raise the stakes.

This week, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran does not sign an agreement with Washington on its nuclear program. In response, according to the Tehran Times, Iran has put launchers in cities with underground military bases on alert.

Thus, the situation in the Middle East is escalating.

US President Donald Trump, instead of being a peacemaker, as he would like to be seen, looks more like a warmonger here. In general, he is playing into the hands of the Israelis, who are seriously concerned about the Iranian nuclear program.

First, according to the IAEA, Iran has accumulated enough nuclear materials for at least five bombs. That is, Israel is thinking and calculating how much time the Iranians need to assemble nuclear bombs and attach them to carriers. And, of course, this worries the Israelis.

Secondly, if we consider whether Iran can strike Israel or American facilities in the Middle East? The answer is yes. Or, can the Israelis launch a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities? They definitely can. They have the capacity. But will they achieve their goals? Without the Americans, the Israelis are unlikely to launch such a strike. But if the Americans support them, then such an operation could probably take place.

What is the US position? By and large, in this issue, as in many others, Trump is playing to raise the stakes. He is escalating. But while in other situations many countries try not to irritate Trump (and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin openly mocks him), Iran responds directly: “We are ready for battle.” That is, the Iranians are ready to respond to Trump’s escalation with escalation. That is why the Iranians are demonstrating nuclear missile storage facilities, Ayatollah Khamenei is making statements... In simple terms, if the United States starts military action against Iran, Iran will strike back.

How can another hotbed of instability in the world affect Ukraine? Any escalation is bad, because it will affect everyone. As for us, it is very difficult to predict now — we have our own war and in the current geopolitical situation, making any forecasts is useless.

On the one hand, there is a confrontation between the United States and Europe. If the United States, which shows disdain for the Europeans, gets involved in a war in the Middle East, will Europe support them? I don't know.

They can support them, demonstrating to Washington that the EU is not an enemy for the United States, but partners and allies, a support that can be counted on. Or, on the contrary, they can play at being detached... It is difficult to say now.

As for Iran and its friends, despite the fact that Russia is trying to make some statements about the “catastrophic” consequences of potential US strikes, in reality Moscow is unlikely to help in any way, especially militarily. These statements are intended to demonstrate support to Iran, because the Russian Federation needs partners in the coalition of thieves — Russia needs Shaheds and other weapons from Iran to use them in Ukraine. But expressing “deep concern” does not mean helping militarily when there is such a need. Especially when Russia itself is bogged down in Ukraine.

Pavlo Lakiychuk, UNIAN

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