When Will The War In Ukraine End: IMF Updates Baseline Forecast

Risks remain exceptionally high.

Experts at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have updated their forecast for the duration of Russia's war against Ukraine. In the baseline scenario, the timing of the end of intense hostilities remains unchanged. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine with a reference to IMF data.

“Although risks remain exceptionally high, the baseline scenario still assumes that the war will end in the last months of this year,” the IMF forecast says.

The Fund has downgraded its forecast for Ukrainian economic growth in 2025 by 0.5 percentage points and by 0.8 percentage points for 2026.

Growth in 2025 is now expected to be in the lower part of the 2-3% range, mainly due to lower steel exports and higher coal imports due to the closure of the Pokrovsk mine as a result of military action and an increase in gas imports as a result of large-scale attacks on gas infrastructure.

“Ongoing hostilities, including recent large-scale attacks on gas infrastructure and the closure of a key coal mine, are weighing on growth in 2025,” the IMF forecast says.

At the same time, progress toward ending the war could improve the Ukrainian economy.

However, “negotiations to end the war are at a very early stage, and changes in international financial and security support for Ukraine are possible,” the fund added.

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