Analysts Calculate Russia’s Losses From Ukrainian Strikes On Oil Refineries
- 26.03.2025, 13:38
- 3,698
The most successful attack was on Gazprom's Astrakhan gas processing plant.
Since the beginning of 2025, Ukrainian drones have been actively and successfully hunting Russian oil refineries, which has led to huge losses for the Russian economy. Several “clean” examples of the impact of such deep strikes were given by analysts from the In Factum intelligence community.
Attack on the Volgograd Oil Refinery
Thus, on February 2025, Ukrainian drones raided the Volgograd Oil Refinery. As a result, it stopped for a week, after which it worked at 60% of its capacity, and its full restoration may take a month and a half.
“The plant's revenue for 2023 was almost 70 billion rubles or $777 million. Revenue for the year / 365 = daily revenue = $2.1 million. If we assume that it will operate at only 60% of its original capacity for the remaining 23-38 days, then the Volgograd Oil Refinery will lose another $20-$32 million, and the total losses will amount to $35-$47 million,” analysts calculated the losses of the Russian Federation.
Attack on the Ryazan Oil Refinery
On January 24, 2025, the Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked the Ryazan Oil Refinery of Rosneft. A fuel tank was damaged — it was destroyed, two more were damaged — as evidenced by satellite images. In addition, a railway overpass located next to these tanks and hydrotreatment units were damaged.
As a result of the attack, the refinery stopped fuel shipments for 18 days, and Rosneft's revenue fell by 85%.
“The revenue of the Ryazan Oil Refinery for 2020 amounted to 26.5 billion rubles, or 72 million daily ($794,000). A three-week “pause” in this case cost the plant at least $12.8 - $14.2 million,” analysts noted.
Attack on the Astrakhan Oil Refinery
According to analysts' calculations, the most successful attack was on Gazprom's Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant. Ukrainian drones hit the gas condensate processing unit, completely disabling it. The repair will take up to six months. According to Reuters, in 2024, the Astrakhan GPP processed 1.8 million tons of gas condensate and produced 800,000 tons of gasoline, 600,000 tons of diesel fuel and 300,000 tons of fuel oil.
The cost of these products is 83 billion rubles, and the plant's revenue for 2024 was 120.9 billion rubles. Analysts believe that the burned-out unit processed 69% of the products.
“According to conservative estimates (if the plant continues to operate with an inactive gas condensate unit), the Astrakhan GPP may lose $228.3 - $456.6 million. If the plant stops completely for this period, the losses will amount to $331-$662 million,” In Factum noted.
They noted that if the Astrakhan Oil Refinery were to shut down completely for six months, the total loss would be 77.9 billion rubles or $863.4 million. While Russia's total income from oil exports in 2024, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency, was $189 billion.
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