Jackal In Sheep's Clothing

Lukashenka wants the war to continue more than anyone else.

While there was no sign of peace in Ukraine, Lukashenka pretended to be a dove. He called for negotiations and worried about bloodshed among fraternal nations. But after the prospects for ending the war began to take shape, it became increasingly difficult to hide the fact that Lukashenka does not want peace in Ukraine any more than his patron Putin does. That is, he does not want it at all. Although Lukashenka's reasons for this are, of course, more prosaic.

Will you hurt me?

“If someone hopes that the negotiations between Russia and the United States on Ukraine or Russia and the West will cause any harm to neighboring Belarus, this is absolutely not the case,” Lukashenka said last week. “Vladimir Vladimirovich confirmed this.”

And since Putin confirmed this, it means Putin was asked about it. That is, it wasn't just someone else, but Lukashenka himself who was worried: what about me now?

And immediately the classic scene with the Cossack and the peasant woman who wants great and pure love comes to mind.

"You won't hurt me, will you?"

And Putin responded: “Don't worry, I won't hurt you.”

And, as always happens in such cases, of course, he lied. And what's typical is that the peasant woman, that is, forgive me, Lukashenka, also understands that he is lying, the scoundrel. But he really wants him not to lie.

It was distrust of an ally, and not fears that Ukraine or the West would annex him with indemnities as a result of the war, that was the reason why Lukashenka so persistently pushed for participation in the negotiations. Well, what's wrong with that? He participated in the war, why not participate in the peace process now.

Because, of course, some guarantees would be welcome. And preferably not from Putin. And guarantees that Putin will not offend him. But after the meeting in Moscow, it turned out that there are no guarantees for Lukashenka other than Putin's. And Lukashenka himself will not be allowed to participate in the peace process.

“A person close to us, our partner — the Russian Federation — will be there. And it knows our interests and will in no way give in to anyone or back down from our interests,” Lukashenka said.

So we had to quickly pretend that Lukashenka did not really want to negotiate. Well, what else can he do if they don't invite him anyway?

“I'm not particularly eager to go anywhere,” Lukashenka said.

And that is precisely why Belarusian television has been relying on the last arguments for three years to prove that there can be no peace process without Lukashenka's participation. But it turned out that if there is a process, it will somehow manage without Lukashenka. And there is no place for Lukashenka at the peace negotiating table. But they can certainly find a place for it on the table.

And in general, this prospect alone, of ending up on the negotiating table as a dessert, is enough for Lukashenka not to be delighted about the upcoming peace process. But there is an even more mundane reason. The Belarusian authorities like making money on war too much to want peace.

Lukashenka admitted the following in an interview with Skabeeva:

“We've had our fill of this example (referring to the conflict in Ukraine — press service note).”

He misspoke, of course. And he meant war fatigue. But it turned out to be fair.

Jackal of War

There are currently 287 Belarusian enterprises working for the war. Even those that were already for peaceful purposes. Like the Lida Legmash plant, which instead of cauldrons and saucepans is shipping shells to the Ukrainian front.

While MAZ buses are burning at work, the plant is supplying its trucks to the Russian Ministry of Defense. It is in MAZ's peaceful exports that everything has fallen. The Russian military has a stable and, most importantly, regularly paid demand for Belarusian trucks.

Not to mention the unique Belarusian microelectronics. Belarusian chips are too big for a smartphone, but they are just right for missiles.

“If something needs to shoot, it will shoot. We will shove our chip into any plane. Today, everything flies. Oreshniks and so on,” Lukashenka said when speaking in the Federation Council last Friday.

And if it is impossible to shove a Belarusian chip into a plane or a missile, then where else will you shove it? And the Belarusian authorities have invested more in microelectronics production capacity in two years than they received in revenue from the export of microchips. They did not invest just like that, but with a long-term goal. In the hope that Russian missiles will have a stable demand for Belarusian microchips.

And there are also less direct consequences. The legendary Belarusian quality cannot compete even with the Chinese. And now Lukashenka is scared that if there is peace, Western companies will return to Russia. It is not a fact that they will actually return. So far, Western companies have not expressed such a desire en masse. But it is still a threat for the Belarusian quality.

“Now these companies will return… Where is the guarantee that they will come and everything will be fine?” Lukashenka said.

And it is clear that there are no guarantees about good. But there are some fears that things may get worse. And these fears are already difficult to hide.

It was not for nothing that Lukashenka was so worried in Moscow about the arrival of Trump's envoys and the prospects of a thirty-day truce. Because Trump, firstly, has a peace plan for the wrong system, and secondly, he will deceive anyway.

“You can't trust anyone. Facts on the table — we will look at these specific facts and make decisions. So that they don't deceive us, as Putin says, like in the old days... So that they don't fool us,” Lukashenka said.

Because Lukashenka, of course, is for peace with all his soul. But there are nuances. Not every peace is equally useful to him. But only one that does not end up on the table of peace negotiations, and so that this peace does not prevent him from continuing to make money on the war.

Andrei Branisheuski, planbmedia.io

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