The Irony Of Political Fate

Trump and Putin agreed on the partial implementation of Zelensky's peace plan.

Summarizing the results of the phone conversation between Trump and Putin in the context of peace negotiations:

1. There was no betrayal. We were very afraid that Putin would again zombify Trump, and he would fulfill the Kremlin's whims to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, will put pressure on us to stop mobilization and fulfil other Putin's demands. The Russian dictator voiced his wishes to Trump, but did not receive consent to fulfill them. However, it is too early to relax. Russia will put forward its ultimatums in the future, at the next stages of negotiations.

2. The irony of political fate — Trump and Putin agreed on the partial implementation of Zelensky's peace plan. Let me remind you that before the talks in Jeddah, Zelensky proposed a transitional ceasefire — for 30 days, first in the air, at sea and in relation to strikes on energy facilities. Now Trump and Putin have agreed on the need to agree first on a ceasefire on ports and energy infrastructure. Of course, this still needs to be agreed with Zelensky, and then to agree on the procedure for such a ceasefire.

3. In the near future, technical, expert negotiations on a ceasefire on ports and energy infrastructure facilities should begin. And this should already be direct negotiations between expert groups of Russia, Ukraine and the United States. The United States, as far as I understand, will be the controller of the implementation of the ceasefire agreement. And this will be the first test — how quickly and effectively it will be possible to agree on such a ceasefire. Practical development of negotiation mechanisms and procedures will also take place. And then the main test — how will this agreement be implemented? It is on this that the fate of negotiations on a complete ceasefire will depend.

4. A very important nuance to which I draw attention: how will this agreement on a ceasefire on ports and energy infrastructure facilities be legally formalized? And who will sign it? This will be an extremely important precedent for the future.

5. A certain logic of the further peace process emerges. It looks like this will be a phased ceasefire. The first stage is a ceasefire on ports and energy infrastructure facilities. If everything goes well, the second stage is a ceasefire in the air and at sea. The third and most difficult stage is a ceasefire on land. If this is the case, then it is hardly worth waiting for a complete ceasefire before Easter. All this will stretch over time for a longer period.

6. After the conversation with Putin, Trump did not give a press conference (he only published a social media post) and has not yet called President Zelensky, although he announced such a conversation. Apparently, he was very tired after a difficult conversation with the Russian dictator. Or maybe he is not very satisfied, and does not want to demonstrate this emotion to the public. And it is necessary to prepare for a conversation with the President of Ukraine, if it is not only about retelling the conversation with Putin.

Volodymyr Fesenko, nv.ua

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