Media: Ukraine Must Exhaust Russia's Most Important Resource

This could become a formula for military victory.

Experts say that for a common victory, Ukraine must inflict three times more losses on Russia. Back in December 2023, the head of the Estonian Ministry of Defense said that in order to defeat Russia in 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces must eliminate about 100 thousand enemy soldiers, Forbes reports.

At the end of last year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces killed and wounded more than 200 thousand soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces, which is twice as much as Tallinn considered necessary. According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Syrsky, in 10 weeks of 2025, Putin's army lost up to 100 thousand servicemen on the battlefield.

According to the Estonian theory of victory, Ukraine can defeat Russia by destroying more well-trained troops than the Russian military training system can replace, thereby initiating a gradual combined arms collapse.

Military experts say that the Kremlin can train 130,000 new recruits every 6 months, but not all of them go straight to the front. If the Kremlin only trains 40,000 new recruits every 6 months, it will force the Russian Federation to throw untrained soldiers into battle. As a result, the quality of Russian forces will deteriorate.

From 2022 to 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces sent an average of 172,000 enemy soldiers to the next world every year. By the end of 2024, 210,000 of Putin's soldiers had been killed and wounded. So why hasn't the Russian army collapsed?

The answer may be that it is collapsing, but very slowly. Analysts recall that in February, the year-long offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Donbas stopped.

Or maybe it is because Russia is finally running out of well-trained troops and, as a result, is losing the ability to conduct significant offensive actions on a large scale, as analysts in Tallinn had assumed.

However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are also suffering losses. As a result, the situation on the battlefield will again reach a dead end. There will be a picture of two exhausted armies delivering softer and softer blows. Such a dead end will ultimately be advantageous to Russia, Frontelligence Insight explained. This is because Ukraine has 38 million people, while Russia has 144 million.

Ukraine must weaken the Russian army faster than Russia weakens the Ukrainian army. Currently, the loss ratio is in Ukraine's favor, but not enough, given the large human reserves of the Russian Federation. Losses on the battlefield should be in the ratio of 1 to 3, and 1 to 1.86.

By killing, maiming, or forcing three Russians to desert for every soldier they lose, the Ukrainians could deplete Russia's most important resource: its people. To achieve such numbers, Ukraine will need continued military support from the West.

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