Trump Has Three Options Now

The choice will be difficult.

The negotiations between Trump and Putin ended with minor compromises (prisoner exchange, cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure for 30 days), but did not lead anywhere near to a breakthrough (ceasefire) that the US President was counting on. The triumph of the “peacemaker” is cancelled for now, and Putin is deliberately stalling for time and is not going to give up his “unfeasible” demands (cessation of mobilization in Ukraine and arms supplies to Kyiv for the duration of the ceasefire).

Now Trump has three options: 1) Agree to negotiations without a ceasefire, which will take a long time and may ultimately end in failure. 2) Put pressure on Kyiv to force it to accept Moscow's conditions and achieve a ceasefire. 3) Put pressure on Moscow to force it to abandon its demands and agree to a full-fledged ceasefire.

The choice will be difficult and so far it does not look like the bet will be placed on the third option. And this is despite the fact that it is Moscow that is putting an end to Trump's plans for a truce. However, he considers Ukraine to be the weak link, and the urgent call to Zelensky does not inspire optimism.

Alexander Fridman, Telegram

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