Putin Is Looking For A Successor

The key requirement is the absence of direct responsibility for the war in Ukraine.

Akhmatova said of Brodsky: "What a biography is being made of our redhead". Now the biography, and retroactively, is being made for Dmitry Kozak. He is created a legend of an opponent of the war in Putin's entourage. Why?

The leak organized in the Western press about Kozak's allegedly initially anti-war stance is most likely the work of a group of "moderates" in the Russian bureaucracy, who are already looking for a replacement for Putin, or at least candidates to succeed him in case he passes away.

The key requirement for such a candidate is the absence of direct responsibility for the war in Ukraine and, as a consequence, the ability to negotiate the restoration of cooperation with the West (a task that any post-Putin Russian top brass will try to accomplish). This requires a new leader with an image as an opponent of the war.

Kozak, whether he realizes it or not, is de facto nominated for such a role. He was probably really not an enthusiast of this aggression and opposed a full-scale invasion. But such leaks are not accidentally surfaced information, but a conscious political game of a certain part of the ruling elite.

Participants in such a game can be a company of long-time friends, partners and neighbors in Serebryany Bor: Kozak, Sobyanin, Gref, Evtushenkov ("AFK Sistema"). And a broader group of conventionally moderate bureaucrats and oligarchs who worry about their future in post-Putin Russia.

After Putin's inevitable - sooner or later - physical departure, they will negotiate with the West to return to their usual model of existence: stealing in Russia and spending and investing in the West. They need the lifting of sanctions, the return of assets, personal property, access to Western markets and financial instruments, and, most importantly, a return from pariah status to the society of the world's super-rich with unlimited opportunities.

In this logic, Kozak looks like an almost ideal candidate for the role of one of the top leaders of post-Putin Russia, who would represent it in the world. Most other figures in the Russian top brass are too badly stained by aggressive war and war crimes.

Of course, Putin is not looking for a successor - he apparently intends to rule and fight indefinitely. It is also unlikely that the top brass is already preparing Putin's elimination and planning to put Kozak in his place. But it is thinking about its future. And the "anti-war" Kozak may well be considered as a candidate to replace the current crazy maniac. Therefore, a beautiful biography of a "fighter for peace" is being created for him in advance.

Igor Eidman, "Telegram"

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