The Dollar Will No Longer Be Cheap
6- 15.12.2025, 8:06
- 12,818
Why was there a reversal to 3 rubles?
Last week, as we expected, there was a reversal of the U.S. dollar and euro exchange rate in the Belarusian fx market. What exchange rates to expect in mid-December, says financial analyst Mikhail Grachev in the traditional forecast for myfin.by.
The expected growth of the dollar
After a three-month cycle of strengthening of the ruble against the U.S. dollar and the euro and reaching a yearly low of USD/BYN 2.8767 on December 5, the "buck" safely turned around to close last week with USD/BYN 2.9483. In total, the dollar gained +2.49% during the week, reducing the gap with the ruble to -15.12% by the beginning of the year. Last week's trading volume was above the average value of $99.057 million.
The rate of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian currency market during the same period declined by 2.14% and ended last week at RUB/BYN 3.7037 per 100 Russian rubles. By the beginning of the year, the acceleration of the Russian ruble decreased to +10.60%. The ruble trading volume on the Belarusian market averaged Br20,059.430 million.
The reason for the dollar rate reversal on the Belarusian and Russian markets lies with a high probability in the upcoming change of monetary policy of the Bank of Russia.
Last week, the global financial regulator, represented by the U.S. Federal Reserve, held the last meeting of the Open Market Committee in 2026. Following the results of the two-day meeting on Wednesday evening, at 22:00 Moscow time, it was decided to reduce the Fed interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%.
The decision was quite expected and predictable, but the Bank of Russia is next in line. This Friday, December 19, the Board of Directors of the Russian Central Bank will decide on the key rate. Recall that the current value of the parameter is 16.5% and almost everyone agrees that on Friday the rate will be lowered by 50 bps to 16.0%.
Russian interest rate cuts and a new cycle for the ruble
So far this event will not change the current status quo in the Russian financial market with its high deposit rates and even higher credit offers. But - prepare your sledges in summer...
The market is already assuming from afar that during the next fiscal year the monetary policy of the Central Bank will move to the softening stage in order to gradually reach the value of the key rate less than 10.0%.
The Central Bank rate is the main instrument of influence on inflationary processes, and from the beginning of 2026 it is expected some acceleration of inflation in the Russian Federation due to the increase in VAT and some other fiscal measures.
Returning to the global financial market, it is impossible not to talk about another high in the price of an ounce of silver, which in December came into focus. Last Friday, December 12, silver futures tested the 65.085 USD/Oz mark, an all-time high to date. The gold price also returned to a range above 4300 USD/Oz, and was up to 4387.80 USD/Oz on Friday. Now it is hard to say whether we will see the price of the yellow metal above 4500 this year, but the probability of such a development is very high. The main factors of demand for protective assets remain in force, and the prospect of growth remains.
Weekly Forecast
In view of the above, this week we can expect the dollar rate to reach 3 rubles on the Belarusian currency market. The Russian ruble will roll back to the range of about RUB/BYN 3.650 per 100 Russian rubles.
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