The World Is No Longer Afraid Of Oil Blackmail

Why Middle East oil is no longer causing panic around the world.

The oil market's weak reaction to the June 2025 strike exchange between Israel and Iran showed: oil from the Middle East is no longer a global "weapon of deterrence." The price of Brent only briefly rose to $79 a barrel and quickly returned to previous levels, writes Modern Diplomacy(translated by Charter97.org).

Experts attribute this to three key factors: U.S. energy independence, diversification of global supplies, and reduced market sensitivity to regional conflicts.

Thanks to the "shale revolution," the U.S. has transformed itself from the largest importer of oil to the largest producer, producing more than 13 million barrels per day and exporting petroleum products. This has strategically freed Washington from the risks associated with Gulf supplies. Even Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz no longer cause panic: the US is able to replace imports with its own production.

Supplies are diversified, with growing production in Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Norway. In 2025, global supply will reach 105 million barrels per day. Even a halt in Iranian supplies would not cause a shock.

Since 2023, a series of escalations in the Middle East have resulted in only short-term price spikes - supplies have almost never been interrupted. Today's real-time data allows traders to quickly assess the situation.

The weakening of the "oil lever" is changing the strategy of the region's players. Iran loses its main instrument of pressure. Israel gets more freedom for military actions. Persian Gulf countries are shifting from oil to investment model of influence.

The era when the Middle East could dictate terms to the world through oil is over. But the weakening of the oil factor may make the region more prone to localized conflict - without the risk of a global economic crisis.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]