Boryslav Bereza: Putin Will Try To Get To Hungary Through The Druzhba Oil Pipeline

Is Russia preparing a new Operation Trumpet?

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that if a plane carrying Putin ends up in Polish airspace, it could be forcibly grounded for transfer to the International Criminal Court.

How realistic is it that a European country would actually decide to ground a Russian plane? This is the question Charter97.org asked Ukrainian politician and former Verkhovna Rada deputy Boryslav Bereza:

- With a high degree of probability no one will refuse or miss such an opportunity. Therefore, Poland, which has signed a treaty on participation in the International Criminal Court, will of course take advantage of the situation. Moreover, it will not violate any conventions and international agreements.

Russia's reaction will most likely be threats, anything, but I don't think it will go any further. The only question here is: will Putin risk flying? I can guarantee 100%, maybe even 200%, that he will not risk it. Even with airplanes guarded or with any guarantees, he won't risk it. He is too cowardly, and he doesn't have enough suitcases that he carries with him all the time to react in any way if he gets really scared. Therefore, it is highly likely that Poland will fulfill its obligations to the ICC, but I doubt that it will have such an opportunity, because Putin will probably just not give it.

- What route could the Kremlin choose to get Putin to Hungary, bypassing EU airspace? Who would Moscow have to negotiate with?"

- If we set aside the possibility that he might try to get to Hungary via the Druzhba oil pipeline, although nothing prevents madness, what remains is what was talked about earlier - flying through Bulgaria. The Bulgarians have warned that they are willing to let it through. By the way, that is exactly what they said: they are not ready to forcibly land his plane, but the Poles are ready. Next, he wants to enter Hungary through Serbia. This information has been heard before, but now, given the information wave that the Russians themselves are spreading - that Putin could be killed in Hungary, that there is no exact agreement on a meeting - the flight to Hungary itself remains under great doubt.

Does Putin want to fly? Yes. But he realizes: just to fly to Hungary and just meet with Trump without giving him a result that will suit him means creating absolutely negative consequences for Russia. So in order to fly, he has to agree to Trump's terms. And for now, as I understand it, Putin does not have a final decision - whether or not he is ready to end the war.

- Is it possible to assume that because of the threat of detention, Putin will eventually abandon the trip to Hungary and try to move the meeting to a safer country for himself - for example, Belarus?"

- Belarus? I doubt it. More likely it will be the Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait or some other countries. But it is important to understand: any meeting that Putin proposes must end with a result. Trump is going for results - he is not interested in just meeting. He is interested in the result. It is not for nothing that he complained that Putin actually stole the Nobel Prize from him this year.

Although, let's be honest - the Nobel Prize for this year will be awarded next year. So Trump still has every opportunity to get it, if he can squash Putin. And there are a number of ways to crush Putin, including increased support for Ukraine and more military aid. This will strongly motivate Putin to meet with Trump - with the result that both Ukraine and Trump want.

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