Analyst About The Novorossiysk Submarine: Things Are Worse Than They Seem

It's not just a story about one unfortunate submarine.

The submarine "Novorossiysk" The Russian Federation submarine Novorossiysk suffered a mechanical failure in the western Mediterranean Sea and is now making its way to a repair base back home. To get to the Baltic Sea, she has to travel 6,000 kilometers, rising to the surface and accepting being towed by NATO ships. In fact, we are talking about more weighty changes for the Russians than mere ridicule due to a breakdown, explained renowned OSINT analyst H.I. Sutton.

The Novorossiysk incident was ridiculed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the world media, but it is worth paying attention to the reasons for the incident and how the situation with the Russian fleet has changed after the invasion of Ukraine, the OSINT analyst noted on the portal Naval News.

H.I. Sutton explained that the Russians kept submarines and a special repair ship in the port of Tartus in Syria. In doing so, they were violating the Montreux Convention, which limits the presence of submarines in the waters, but justified it with maintenance. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the situation changed: Turkey closed the Bosphorus and Cyprus ports to Russian ships, and a Ukrainian maritime drone drove away a supply ship in the Black Sea that was heading for the Mediterranean. Over time, there was a need for maintenance of two diesel boats of the Kilo project based in Tartus, the analyst noted.

Now, in order to pass an inspection or deliver spare parts and cargo, the Russians have to go to the Baltic Sea and travel about 4,000 kilometers one way. According to Sutton, the situation with Novorossiysk and Tartus shows Russia's loss of control in the Mediterranean Sea.

"Kilo-type submarines are showing their limitations, and Russia has lost any sense of permanence in the Mediterranean. This is not just a story about one unfortunate submarine, it is a growing hole in capacity and capability," the analyst summarized.

OSINT specialist noted that the Russian Federation is probably trying to build a new submarine base. According to his assessment, it could be the port of Tobruk in Libya. This requires construction work: if observers notice Russian ships with construction materials in Tobruk, it will signal the start of construction.

In the meantime, on the afternoon of October 15, the Swedish military reported that it had spotted another Russian submarine. The submarine, shown in official photos, looks like a multipurpose diesel-electric Kilo-type Novorossiysk diesel-electric boat. The Swedish Navy specified that the submarine passed into the Baltic Sea through the Bolshoi Belt Strait.

In the meantime, Western media, citing RosSMI, told what could have happened to the submarine. It turned out that in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea there was a fuel leak inside the hull and this cannot be repaired in the field. The masters who are able to cope with such a breakdown are at the shipyard in the Russian Federation.

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