Business Insider: Ukraine May Take Foothold

Analysts have assessed the AFU offensive in Kursk region of the Russian Federation.

Ukraine's ambitious offensive in Russia's Kursk region last summer was a huge risk. Military historians will be debating for a long time whether the operation was justified, but there are signs that Ukraine could take a foothold with a new offensive, writes Business Insider.

Despite the cost, the operation has given the Ukrainians a chance to break out of their long defensive position, launch an offensive and force Russia to reallocate resources. There's also a chance it will facilitate Kyiv with the potential peace talks.

‘It's hard to say until it's over, but I would still say it was a good move,’ said Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Attempt to Change Status Quo

The offensive came as a surprise to war observers, Ukraine's international partners and Russian soldiers. Ukraine said it sought to create a buffer zone, weaken Russian resources and gain leverage for negotiations.

The operation was also meant to provide moral support to Ukrainian forces and demonstrate to Western partners Kyiv's determination. Military experts say that seizing the initiative is key to success.

‘Without initiative, you are constantly defending yourself and the enemy is stonewalling you,’ said George Barros, a military expert at the Institute for the Study of War.

Russia's Initial Reaction and Its Aftermath

Moscow's reaction was belated, which allowed Ukraine to seize more territory. However, Russia managed to avoid significantly weakening its position on other fronts, and its army resumed its offensive in the autumn.

Ukraine, on the other hand, had to transfer forces from other directions, which made its own defence more difficult. However, according to the Ukrainian commanders, this was a necessary step to reduce pressure on the fronts and contain the Russian offensive.

According to British intelligence, Russia suffered significant losses at Kursk: more than 38,000 military and more than a thousand pieces of hardware. At the same time, Ukraine has retained significant territory, which could become an important argument in negotiations.

‘Whoever controls Kursk is likely to find themselves in a stronger position to negotiate a ceasefire,’ Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon emphasised.

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