Strong Blow To Putin Regime

An exploision is about to happen.

The Kremlin has perfectly figured out what to do with the current situation, but has lost sight of the fact that individual situations do not exist on their own. They add up to long-term trends and here, with the defeat at Kursk, the authorities will not be able to do anything. It will strengthen the long-term anti-Putin trend, accelerate the general processes of accumulation of fatigue and negativity that are not tied to turnover.

Yes, the regime will be able to avoid a social explosion right now, but the accumulation of dissatisfaction will still occur. This means that when this explosion does happen, it will be even stronger.

Of course, this does not always work linearly: if the intervals between crises are long, then the negative can evaporate without special consequences for the authorities, but if these intervals are reduced, then the accumulation goes on in full. By starting a war and radicalizing internal political processes, Putin created just such a situation: when society immediately migrates from one crisis to another. And here the tactical tricks of the Kremlin will not help him.

Yes, as people get used to the fact that Putin was unable to protect his native penates, people will calm down a little. In this sense, a "new normality" will really be formed. But, for God's sake, does anyone in the Kremlin think that people will like this "new normality" more than the old one? Of course not! So the desire to change this very "new normality", to normalize it – they will become stronger. And as you know, where there is a will – there is a way.

When a revolution occurs, the authorities are very often shocked: how so, it seems that everything was not bad, we solved all the current crises! Exactly what is "current". The authorities did not see the forest behind the trees; they failed to understand that turnover is not the whole political process, and sometimes it is a very secondary part of it.

Abbas Gallyamov, Tochka

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