'Lukashenka Gets One-Way Ticket'

And his entourage understands this.

The Kursk operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine put an end to talk of "peace plans", which in recent months have been promoted by both Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and China. At a meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Putin said that he was not going to hold peace talks with Kyiv.

How things have changed. Charter97.org spoke to Ukrainian political scientist and writer Volodymyr Tsybulko about this:

— The Ukrainian military command realized that no compromises with Putin should be expected, and developed an operation to expand the front. The opening of the Kursk Front creates circumstances in which Russian troops must stretch reserves by another 400 kilometers. In this sense, the calculation is that the Ukrainian troops are more technologically advanced, better trained. Due to technology, the mass use of drones and high-quality electronic warfare systems, it will be possible to successfully withstand the more numerous troops of Russia.

Such raids have already been repeatedly carried out by the forces of Russian volunteers — to the Bryansk region and Belgorod region. In this sense, many people, including Western observers, still perceive this operation as a raid. Judging by the actions of the Russian command, it is going to close the gap in Kursk with such prefabricated salt flats, they are pulling forces from different rear parts. The guards of the local colony were mobilized for defence near the city of Lgov, whom the Ukrainian troops took prisoner. These are security forces, they do not understand anything in terms of understanding military tactics.

It seems that the Russian command does not perceive this as a full-fledged military operation, but still as a raid. Serious units have not been removed from the Pokrovsk direction, there is a huge pressure on the Ukrainian troops, but some of the troops have already been removed from the Kharkiv direction.

And most importantly, the number of Russian air strikes has decreased, which still allows us to believe that Russia will reorient some of the troops now to Kursk, and not only to Kursk — to Belgorod and Bryansk, too.

There was information about the use of Belarusian armored vehicles in these areas, but, most likely, Lukashenko simply paid off from the participation of the Armed Forces of Belarus in the cover of the same Bryansk region. In this sense, paying off with armored vehicles, in my opinion, is cheaper than transferring manpower.

— How will the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region affect Lukashenka? In fact, the AFU showed that the army with combat experience deals with conscripts and border guards without any problems. How is the situation changing for the Belarusian dictator?

— As we have seen, there are not only conscripts, for example, the Russian 810th Marine Brigade is also involved in the battles. By the way, this brigade was destroyed at zero by Ukrainian troops about four times, there remained up to 10% of the manpower. But it was replenished again, pushed up and thrown into battle again. So, the 810th Brigade is really relocated to Kursk, in my opinion, they are operating somewhere in the area of Lgov.

We can say that Lukashenka, it seems to me, will not do with only vehicles. The hysteria of the Russian command will be addressed to him in order to at least allow him to recruit contract soldiers on the territory of Belarus, he has previously allowed this.

It is worth noting that against the background of Kursk, the CSTO abbreviation suddenly disappeared, no one remembers the existence of this pathetic creature. What is more interesting is that the Russian authorities themselves are reducing the volume of the operation of Ukrainian troops. Now the Ukrainian command says about 78 captured settlements and about 1,200 square kilometers of controlled territory. This is such a sensitive amount, because during the attack on the Kharkiv region, which has been since the spring, they seized a total of about 100 square kilometers. Of course, almost 20% of Ukraine is occupied, so the territory that is now in the Kursk region under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is only a small compensation.

— And if we talk not about the regime, but about Lukashenka personally, has anything changed in his mind?

— It seems to me that Lukashenka felt that Putin had actually made him to commit a crime and a long time ago. Previously, Lukashenka believed that Putin was such a lawless man, but a lawless man who could protect him. And now in Lukashenka's politics there is a feeling of a threat to collective responsibility, The Hague for them together with Putin.

Lukashenka's entourage is well aware that they are criminals like Putin. And if the sanctions on the anniversary of the election fraud were strengthened by the United States, Canada, and other democratic countries, then this is a one-way ticket. It seems to me that Lukashenka's entourage after Kursk begins to feel the proximity of the end.

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