An Election Without Biden

Voters in the United States have a pretty simple question to answer.

United States President Joseph Biden's decision to drop out of the campaign trail weeks before the Democratic convention where he is set to be confirmed as the nominee is reminiscent of the history we are witnessing in the 2024 race.

For the first time in decades, presidential hopefuls are debating before their party conventions decide whether to run. For the first time in decades, a presidential candidate has been shot. For the first time in decades, an incumbent president is refusing to run for reelection. And for the first time, a candidate who won his own party's primary is dropping out of the race, opening the door for a new candidate to emerge.

But if you look at the situation from a pragmatic rather than a historical perspective, Biden's decision changes little. Because the last presidential election in the United States was back in 2016, when Republican Donald Trump unexpectedly snatched victory from Democrat Hillary Clinton. Remember, back then the former head of the State Department seemed literally doomed to win, because no one wanted to believe that Trump could win!

And then there are no longer elections, but plebiscites, the main question of which is whether the voter wants to see Donald Trump in the White House. Therefore, in fact, the 2020 election was first and foremost not “Biden's election”, but “Trump's election”. And the 2024 election is not Biden's election, but election — or non-election — of Trump. And from this point of view, this election was already the election without Biden. Even before the decision of the current US president.

Voters must answer one rather simple question: do they want their country to be governed by a man whose very actions, given the storming of the Capitol, are contrary to the principles of democracy, or are they ready to turn a blind eye to all this because it is Trump?

And since most Trump voters are guided by an irrational approach formulated in these very words — “I vote because, you know, it is Trump”, and most of those who vote against are guided by an unspeakable horror — “I vote because anyone but Trump” — everything will be decided by the votes of a small number of people in a few strategically important states. People who do not yet know whether this plebiscite matters to them at all.

Of course, this was the case in 2016, when Trump ran a successful campaign in these states and won. And in 2020, when Trump lost these states to Biden, and could not believe it. This is how it will be now. Democrats only need to convince voters that the person they propose to America is capable of effectively governing the country, primarily physically. This, of course, does not guarantee them victory, but leaves the chances of this victory at the same level as they were before the famous debates and Joseph Biden's decision.

Vitaly Portnikov, sestry.eu

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