'Lukashenka Is Just Afraid To Tell Putin About It'

The political scientist told what signal the Kremlin sent to the Belarusian dictator.

A number of events occurred in Belarus, which, at first glance, are not related to each other. Lukashenka hurried to withdraw his troops from the border with Ukraine, Chinese military exercises were held in the country, and the Russian Shahed exploded on the territory of the country. Is there logic in the chain of these events?

Charter97.org asked political expert Oleksandr Musienko, the head of the Ukrainian Center for Military and Legal Studies, to comment on this:

— Lukashenka continues to play a game called "big imitation", constantly preparing for war against Ukraine. There is a demonstrative activity: he moves the troops, conducts some demonstrative counter-sabotage actions, knocks down imaginary Ukrainian drones and the like. This is done for the sake of a "tick" for the Kremlin, like, look, the relevant work is underway.

As for the Shaheds and everything that is happening, the fact is that there is an interesting detail here. You can take this flight of the Shahed as a signal for Lukashenka to more actively engage and support Russia. But I do not exclude that there was a failure due to the fact that Russia is now very actively experimenting with the Shaheds, heights, their flight plans and they simply deviate and fly in Belarus.

Belarus should address all claims to Russia, but I do not see these claims. Lukashenka is just afraid to tell Putin about It. But how?! Imaginary drones from Lithuania, then from Ukraine fly in and they are shot down, but it does not work with the Shaheds.

I also note that Putin is dissatisfied with the way Lukashenka acts, trying to secure himself by ties with China. He has long wanted more involvement of Belarus in the war, but he cannot go against China. So far, Putin is forced to accept the fact that Lukashenka will play a game called "great imitation", and Putin will pretend, "yes, yes, everyone is going according to plan."

— Some political scientists believe that Putin is putting pressure on Lukashenka to join the war against Ukraine, which is why the Shaheds began to appear over Belarus. What do you think about it?

— Putin is pressuring Lukashenka to make the last also exerts pressure, to demonstrate readiness for war, so that Ukraine keeps as many of its troops as possible on the border with Belarus.

Note that Lukashenka quite often remembers the forces of special operations of Belarus. Not about the army, but focuses on the SOF. In his opinion, they are the most combat-ready and loyal to date. He counts on them, but I think that the Belarusian army is hardly ready and expresses a desire to fight against Ukraine.

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